***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.9 28.6 27.3 -1.0 37.5 39.7 28.5 29.3 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.3 27.4 -1.0 40.7 41.7 28.0 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 27.5 27.8 27.4 -1.1 35.4 40.0 27.4 29.1 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 20.5 20.5 25.8 -1.5 29.2 33.7 21.3 22.7 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 27.7 28.1 25.8 -1.3 32.5 37.3 28.4 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 27.0 28.1 24.3 -0.8 38.0 41.6 26.9 29.5 30.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.1 28.4 27.3 -0.8 43.9 43.2 27.4 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.9 16.3 24.6 -0.8 38.6 43.0 15.7 18.4 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 27.3 28.0 26.1 -1.1 33.8 38.9 27.8 29.5 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.5 27.7 25.0 -0.9 36.1 41.3 27.1 29.3 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.7 25.6 -1.0 35.3 39.9 28.1 29.7 30.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.8 27.8 25.6 -0.9 36.8 41.5 26.3 29.3 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.9 28.4 25.1 -1.1 34.2 38.6 28.1 30.5 31.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 27.3 28.1 25.8 -0.7 39.3 43.8 27.3 29.0 29.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 27.4 27.6 26.2 -1.6 28.2 31.2 28.1 29.8 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 28.9 29.4 25.5 -1.2 34.1 38.0 28.9 31.4 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 28.6 27.9 27.2 -0.6 47.1 45.6 26.9 28.1 29.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.3 27.2 24.3 -0.7 37.9 43.8 26.1 28.2 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.0 27.4 -1.0 39.5 41.3 27.5 28.7 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.1 22.6 -0.5 43.7 46.1 22.1 24.7 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.8 -1.2 32.7 38.1 27.4 29.3 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.7 27.2 -0.6 44.7 45.4 27.5 28.9 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.2 27.6 27.2 -0.9 38.6 41.7 27.3 28.8 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.3 25.7 -0.8 36.7 42.6 26.8 28.7 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 27.9 27.9 25.9 -1.2 34.4 38.0 27.7 29.6 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 28.2 27.5 25.1 -1.3 31.9 36.6 27.7 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.2 26.6 -0.9 38.7 40.8 27.7 28.7 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 27.8 27.6 26.0 -1.6 28.6 32.3 29.1 30.4 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.2 23.5 -0.5 41.4 45.9 21.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.2 27.5 -1.0 39.9 40.7 27.5 28.6 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------