***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 28.5 28.2 28.6 -0.8 37.5 40.3 28.1 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.7 28.6 -0.8 39.6 41.2 28.2 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.2 28.5 -0.9 36.5 39.2 28.0 29.0 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 20.7 20.5 26.8 -1.6 28.0 30.8 20.6 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 28.6 28.1 26.8 -1.4 31.3 33.4 28.4 30.2 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 27.0 26.7 24.7 -1.4 30.7 33.4 26.9 28.9 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.5 28.7 -0.5 42.5 44.0 28.0 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.0 16.6 25.1 -1.3 37.1 36.3 16.4 17.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 29.7 27.5 27.1 -1.2 32.5 35.7 27.6 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.2 27.7 25.7 -1.2 36.0 36.8 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 28.0 27.8 26.3 -1.3 33.7 34.5 27.7 29.7 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 29.5 27.5 26.0 -1.5 34.0 33.7 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 28.4 27.8 25.4 -1.8 29.8 30.6 28.0 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 29.2 27.7 26.8 -0.7 40.0 41.9 27.6 28.8 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 28.6 28.7 27.2 -1.6 27.5 29.6 28.8 29.8 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 29.2 28.4 26.0 -1.6 30.7 32.0 28.7 30.9 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.0 28.6 -0.3 43.7 46.4 27.6 28.6 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 28.3 27.1 25.1 -1.0 38.0 39.5 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 27.6 28.5 -0.9 38.5 40.2 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.5 23.0 23.1 -1.1 38.1 39.0 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 28.1 27.9 27.9 -1.2 33.3 36.2 27.9 29.6 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.4 28.6 28.4 -0.4 41.2 45.0 28.2 28.9 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.4 28.1 28.2 -0.8 39.1 40.5 27.6 28.9 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 28.9 27.6 26.7 -0.8 38.6 40.6 27.2 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 28.4 28.2 27.2 -1.0 34.1 38.0 28.2 29.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 27.7 27.4 25.4 -2.1 26.0 26.6 27.8 29.5 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 28.1 28.3 28.0 -0.7 37.5 42.0 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 28.3 28.3 26.9 -1.7 27.3 29.0 28.4 29.6 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 24.1 22.8 24.2 -0.9 38.0 40.6 22.4 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.8 28.0 28.7 -0.9 38.6 40.3 27.7 29.2 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------