***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.8 28.1 -1.5 28.7 30.4 28.0 28.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 26.8 27.7 28.1 -1.5 30.3 31.4 28.0 28.7 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 27.1 26.9 27.8 -1.8 25.6 26.9 27.5 28.4 29.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 19.8 19.8 25.6 -2.2 22.3 23.3 20.3 22.0 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 27.4 27.1 26.0 -2.2 19.4 22.9 28.0 29.0 30.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 26.4 26.2 23.8 -2.0 23.3 24.7 26.9 28.2 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.8 27.6 28.3 -1.2 31.9 34.9 27.6 28.6 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 15.7 15.7 23.5 -2.7 17.5 18.4 16.6 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 27.2 27.2 26.8 -2.1 19.4 23.9 27.6 28.1 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 26.8 26.6 24.6 -2.4 18.2 20.8 27.5 28.2 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 27.0 26.9 25.5 -2.4 18.4 21.1 27.6 28.5 29.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 26.3 26.1 24.6 -2.7 16.8 18.2 27.0 27.9 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 27.3 27.2 24.9 -2.5 18.5 20.7 28.1 28.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 27.2 27.2 25.9 -1.9 21.9 25.6 27.4 28.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 28.0 27.9 27.5 -2.0 24.2 24.8 28.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 28.0 27.8 25.5 -2.3 19.6 21.5 28.5 29.8 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.2 27.2 28.0 -1.0 34.0 36.9 27.2 28.2 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 26.2 25.9 23.5 -2.4 15.9 21.0 26.3 27.7 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.4 27.1 27.9 -1.7 28.9 29.3 27.5 28.4 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 21.8 21.5 21.5 -2.6 15.8 19.9 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 27.4 27.0 27.6 -2.0 22.1 25.5 27.4 28.5 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 26.5 27.8 27.7 -1.4 30.9 33.5 27.8 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 26.7 27.5 27.5 -1.8 26.5 27.2 27.6 28.0 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 26.6 26.4 25.7 -2.1 19.9 23.7 27.0 27.9 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.9 27.6 26.9 -1.6 27.6 29.8 27.7 28.9 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 26.6 26.5 24.2 -2.9 16.4 16.4 27.9 28.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 27.0 27.5 27.6 -1.3 30.3 32.7 27.8 28.4 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 91 9 0 100 27.4 27.3 26.3 -2.3 21.1 21.9 28.5 30.1 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 21.5 21.2 22.7 -2.4 15.9 21.1 22.2 22.8 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 26.7 27.4 28.1 -1.6 29.0 29.9 27.8 28.5 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------