***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 14.9 15.0 17.6 -0.3 37.2 39.8 15.0 15.2 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 17.7 -0.2 42.4 44.5 14.8 15.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 16.6 16.7 17.5 -0.4 32.4 38.8 16.7 17.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 12.1 11.9 15.4 -0.6 21.7 30.0 12.2 12.9 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.2 15.4 -0.5 25.8 33.8 13.4 13.8 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.5 14.0 -0.3 36.5 40.9 12.5 12.9 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.2 17.8 -0.2 45.3 44.7 15.0 15.3 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.9 7.6 13.6 -0.4 31.7 37.9 7.6 8.7 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.6 15.7 -0.5 27.7 35.1 14.6 14.9 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.5 14.2 -0.4 31.3 38.1 14.6 14.7 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 13.6 14.0 15.1 -0.4 29.3 37.2 14.0 14.2 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 12.1 11.9 14.5 -0.5 26.6 33.8 12.0 12.8 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.2 -0.5 25.3 32.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.8 15.1 15.8 -0.2 37.7 42.5 15.1 15.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 15.1 14.9 16.1 -0.8 17.9 24.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 14.6 14.8 14.9 -0.5 25.8 33.6 14.9 15.1 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.8 17.6 0.2 59.0 56.8 15.3 15.7 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.6 13.4 -0.3 35.3 39.7 12.6 13.1 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 14.7 14.9 17.6 -0.2 40.2 43.5 14.8 15.0 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.7 9.1 11.9 -0.3 37.8 40.3 9.0 9.3 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 14.1 14.3 16.7 -0.5 25.7 34.4 14.4 14.7 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.7 14.5 17.5 0.0 50.6 51.7 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.2 14.3 17.3 -0.2 36.2 41.8 14.3 14.5 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.9 15.5 -0.3 34.1 40.7 14.9 15.1 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.0 -0.4 29.8 36.7 14.5 15.0 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.2 13.9 -0.9 19.4 23.0 13.4 14.1 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.1 16.8 -0.2 38.3 41.9 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 13.1 12.9 15.8 -0.7 19.6 26.5 13.3 13.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.4 13.0 -0.3 38.2 41.0 12.2 12.5 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 14.9 15.2 17.8 -0.3 37.3 40.6 15.0 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------