***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.4 15.9 -0.6 42.0 41.0 13.1 14.1 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.6 16.1 -0.4 45.5 43.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 14.9 15.5 15.9 -0.6 38.3 40.2 15.1 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 9.9 9.8 13.8 -1.0 24.7 33.1 10.5 11.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 11.3 11.3 13.7 -0.9 26.4 35.4 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 11.3 11.7 12.7 -0.5 38.1 42.5 11.6 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.7 16.2 -0.4 44.6 44.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 6.4 12.2 -0.6 34.3 40.7 6.4 7.4 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 13.0 12.9 13.9 -0.8 31.0 37.2 12.9 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 12.8 13.1 12.5 -0.7 32.4 39.9 13.1 13.5 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 12.4 12.5 13.5 -0.8 27.5 37.9 12.6 13.2 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.2 13.1 -0.8 30.5 37.8 11.4 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 11.6 12.4 12.7 -0.8 29.1 36.8 12.4 12.9 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.8 14.1 -0.5 37.8 42.0 13.3 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 14.1 13.9 14.5 -1.0 24.8 33.5 14.4 15.6 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.5 13.3 -0.8 27.2 36.5 13.7 14.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.6 15.9 -0.1 50.8 48.0 13.4 14.6 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 11.2 11.8 11.9 -0.5 34.2 41.5 11.8 12.3 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.4 16.0 -0.5 44.1 42.4 12.9 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 7.9 10.6 -0.5 39.7 42.6 7.7 8.7 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 12.4 13.1 15.0 -0.8 31.1 37.4 13.2 13.4 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.2 15.8 -0.2 46.4 45.9 12.8 13.3 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.0 15.7 -0.5 41.4 41.6 12.9 13.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 13.2 13.3 13.9 -0.5 34.7 41.4 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.3 -0.7 35.1 38.1 13.2 13.6 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 12.1 12.0 12.7 -1.0 22.9 32.4 12.5 13.0 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.2 15.2 -0.5 41.2 41.6 12.8 13.9 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 11.3 11.4 14.2 -1.1 24.1 32.9 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.5 11.5 -0.5 35.2 42.1 10.5 11.5 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.2 13.4 16.2 -0.5 42.5 41.9 13.0 13.9 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------