***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.3 17.3 -0.2 45.9 48.8 14.8 15.5 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.3 17.4 -0.1 49.6 50.2 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.6 17.2 -0.3 45.3 48.0 17.0 17.7 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.3 12.6 15.1 -0.6 41.6 41.9 12.3 12.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.1 15.0 -0.4 46.5 45.6 12.8 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 11.9 13.0 13.9 -0.2 44.7 49.4 12.3 13.1 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.4 17.4 -0.1 51.9 51.2 14.7 15.3 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.3 13.5 -0.3 44.0 48.1 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.7 15.2 -0.4 47.3 46.0 14.0 14.8 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.8 14.5 13.9 -0.3 45.4 47.5 13.8 14.6 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.0 14.8 -0.3 47.7 48.3 13.4 14.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.1 14.4 -0.3 41.9 46.2 11.7 12.8 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 12.9 13.9 -0.4 38.4 44.9 12.8 13.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.1 15.4 -0.2 45.2 48.0 14.8 15.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.0 15.7 -0.8 37.2 38.4 14.6 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.9 14.6 -0.4 44.2 45.4 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.9 17.2 0.3 59.9 57.3 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.6 13.2 -0.2 45.4 48.3 12.1 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.2 17.3 -0.2 48.0 49.3 14.6 15.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.1 11.9 -0.2 49.3 49.6 8.6 9.1 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.0 16.3 -0.4 44.3 45.8 13.6 14.5 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.6 17.0 0.2 55.3 54.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.2 16.9 -0.2 46.5 47.7 13.8 14.3 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.7 15.2 -0.2 46.2 48.4 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.3 15.7 -0.3 45.1 47.1 14.1 14.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.0 13.4 14.0 -0.6 32.7 40.6 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.4 16.5 -0.1 48.3 50.1 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.0 12.8 15.5 -0.7 38.5 39.5 12.5 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.6 12.8 -0.2 45.3 49.0 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.3 17.5 -0.2 48.2 48.7 14.6 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------