***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.2 18.3 -0.3 43.2 45.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.4 18.6 -0.1 53.2 48.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.8 18.2 -0.3 45.4 45.1 17.1 18.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.8 16.2 -0.6 35.5 38.2 12.8 13.6 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 14.1 13.5 16.0 -0.5 37.4 40.9 13.5 13.8 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.1 14.7 -0.3 39.1 42.7 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.9 18.6 -0.1 52.7 49.2 15.0 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.5 14.3 -0.4 40.1 42.2 8.1 8.9 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.1 16.2 -0.5 39.6 41.2 14.9 15.5 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.0 14.8 -0.4 41.2 42.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.6 15.7 -0.4 39.5 42.6 14.5 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.7 15.2 -0.5 37.9 39.7 12.7 13.0 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 13.5 14.6 -0.6 36.1 36.8 13.4 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.8 16.6 -0.1 48.5 46.8 15.3 15.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.5 16.0 16.6 -0.8 34.7 35.1 15.9 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.6 15.4 -0.5 37.2 39.2 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.5 18.5 0.3 58.9 56.2 15.8 16.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 12.9 14.2 -0.3 42.2 43.9 12.7 13.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 18.5 -0.1 51.1 48.2 15.2 15.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.0 12.7 -0.3 39.7 43.0 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.4 17.3 -0.5 38.1 41.2 14.2 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.0 18.4 0.2 56.0 54.3 14.5 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.0 18.1 -0.2 46.4 46.9 14.5 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.8 15.6 16.3 -0.2 46.5 46.0 15.4 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.1 16.6 -0.3 40.4 43.6 14.6 15.7 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.0 13.6 14.4 -1.0 29.2 32.4 14.0 14.9 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.4 17.5 -0.2 44.4 46.7 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.4 16.4 -0.7 34.2 35.7 13.4 13.8 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.4 12.7 13.7 -0.2 43.0 45.3 12.1 13.1 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.8 18.6 -0.2 48.4 46.3 15.1 15.8 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------