***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 16.7 16.6 18.7 -0.3 49.8 47.5 15.5 16.6 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 97 3 100 16.4 16.4 18.8 0.0 51.7 52.3 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 18.5 18.2 18.5 -0.3 45.7 45.3 17.3 18.4 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 13.5 13.3 16.6 -0.2 48.8 48.5 12.4 13.3 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 15.2 15.0 16.8 -0.2 46.3 46.8 13.9 15.1 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 13.9 13.8 14.9 -0.2 46.7 47.2 13.3 13.9 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 96 4 100 16.6 16.6 18.8 -0.2 49.7 50.0 15.8 16.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 9.5 9.0 14.5 -0.5 45.6 44.1 8.7 9.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 16.3 16.1 17.3 -0.3 44.1 45.9 15.7 16.2 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 16.2 15.9 15.4 -0.2 47.1 47.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 15.7 15.5 16.4 -0.3 49.1 47.4 14.9 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 14.0 13.8 15.3 -0.5 44.1 43.5 13.2 13.9 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 15.3 15.0 15.4 -0.3 43.7 44.1 14.1 15.2 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 17.1 17.0 17.1 -0.1 50.3 50.5 16.1 17.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 17.1 16.3 17.6 -0.7 37.3 37.0 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 16.5 16.3 16.2 -0.2 46.0 45.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 17.1 17.5 18.7 0.4 59.5 60.6 16.1 17.1 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 94 6 100 14.7 14.5 14.4 -0.2 48.3 47.3 13.8 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 96 4 100 16.4 16.4 18.7 0.0 49.9 50.5 15.9 16.4 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 92 8 100 10.6 10.5 12.5 -0.3 49.2 46.9 9.0 10.5 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 15.9 15.5 18.2 -0.4 43.3 44.4 15.1 15.8 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 97 3 100 16.1 16.1 18.7 0.1 51.9 52.7 15.3 16.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 93 7 100 15.8 15.6 18.6 -0.1 48.7 48.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 16.7 16.7 16.7 -0.2 49.0 47.9 15.9 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 16.2 16.1 17.5 -0.3 50.2 47.8 15.2 16.1 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 14.0 14.5 14.4 -0.8 31.0 32.8 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 16.1 16.1 18.1 -0.2 51.8 49.7 15.2 15.9 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 15.1 14.4 17.1 -0.4 42.2 41.8 14.0 14.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 13.6 13.5 13.9 -0.2 48.8 47.1 12.3 13.5 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 16.5 16.3 18.9 -0.3 46.4 46.7 15.9 16.4 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------