***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 48.2 42.9 34.6 80.9 53.1 46.2 34.6 42.5 54.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 50.0 49.1 34.9 85.6 53.8 47.3 25.6 41.6 66.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 50.7 46.1 37.0 86.8 53.8 48.4 25.2 45.5 66.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 30.0 40.9 30.6 74.6 46.8 40.9 32.8 44.7 57.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.0 31.6 30.3 78.8 49.2 43.2 25.2 31.7 40.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 26.3 39.2 38.0 88.8 50.2 43.9 33.3 39.1 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 45.0 41.4 34.1 84.7 52.1 47.3 32.2 40.9 50.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 40.6 62.0 37.7 86.1 51.1 44.5 43.9 61.6 82.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 49.2 40.3 32.6 78.3 47.4 43.0 29.4 41.8 50.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 39.2 52.8 40.0 83.6 48.6 43.4 39.6 53.3 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 27.2 39.3 29.9 84.4 51.6 43.8 25.7 37.5 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.5 37.2 28.8 86.2 54.9 45.2 26.1 31.6 46.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 15.9 32.7 29.7 86.0 53.6 44.8 18.9 29.3 45.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 43.8 61.4 50.9 91.0 54.9 47.9 38.5 60.2 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 16.8 32.1 24.4 69.5 48.2 39.6 17.7 32.7 40.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 22.0 38.8 29.9 85.7 53.0 44.9 21.8 36.0 47.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 32.6 46.8 35.2 85.3 51.4 46.8 33.1 43.5 53.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 32.9 44.0 47.5 86.5 51.5 45.2 38.3 43.4 51.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 51.2 45.8 37.1 89.0 55.5 48.8 35.0 43.5 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 39.5 58.4 49.9 92.3 53.8 47.3 41.7 57.3 66.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 48.7 39.5 32.0 76.5 48.9 43.6 27.1 40.8 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 45.7 44.0 39.0 90.5 54.6 49.3 33.7 38.4 55.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 49.2 48.1 40.1 92.9 57.4 49.8 27.2 42.2 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 60.4 51.8 42.6 84.0 50.4 45.3 41.8 51.3 71.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 27.8 41.1 34.4 74.5 48.6 42.4 31.4 41.7 53.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 17.4 35.2 25.4 87.7 54.8 46.2 22.6 30.5 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 54.6 45.7 35.4 76.8 50.6 44.3 27.1 44.5 64.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 16.8 25.9 28.5 74.7 48.3 41.4 19.2 25.9 37.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 73.0 63.9 51.4 90.0 51.3 46.4 46.3 63.3 87.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 36.2 30.3 35.7 86.8 55.1 48.8 21.8 29.1 40.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------