***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.4 7.7 92.5 62.5 48.8 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.6 16.7 8.5 103.0 67.7 53.3 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.0 16.0 7.4 85.5 60.0 48.3 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.7 6.6 78.3 63.9 48.1 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.9 6.6 80.8 61.8 48.0 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.1 16.3 7.9 89.5 65.0 45.8 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.8 13.9 8.3 98.3 68.8 51.6 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.0 25.2 7.7 79.2 61.4 48.3 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.6 14.0 7.0 79.1 61.2 48.0 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 12.6 8.3 79.6 59.3 48.3 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.8 14.2 5.4 74.9 60.7 48.4 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.3 5.3 73.3 62.9 47.6 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.6 12.3 5.9 77.5 64.2 48.8 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 24.6 12.5 100.2 65.9 50.9 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.5 5.1 75.0 66.6 47.8 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.5 5.6 78.4 63.2 48.3 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.9 18.6 8.9 101.9 69.6 53.1 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.3 11.3 90.1 62.2 50.3 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.0 17.4 8.7 103.6 66.7 52.3 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 9.2 18.6 12.7 97.8 63.9 51.2 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.3 15.5 6.9 79.5 60.5 47.9 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.9 19.7 9.5 101.2 68.2 52.7 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.7 21.3 9.4 108.4 67.9 52.1 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.8 16.5 9.8 88.0 61.4 49.8 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.6 15.5 7.8 87.2 63.5 47.7 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.6 21.6 5.6 85.8 69.6 51.1 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 14.5 8.2 93.6 63.4 48.2 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.2 10.2 5.9 78.3 64.9 48.1 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 24.5 12.7 97.4 64.0 51.3 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.9 8.4 101.2 66.6 51.8 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------