***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.8 8.7 7.6 85.6 68.1 52.3 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.9 8.3 93.7 68.9 50.0 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.2 13.4 7.1 77.5 65.8 49.4 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.1 5.6 67.6 62.2 45.1 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.0 4.3 54.9 57.0 41.9 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 0.3 3.4 8.3 86.3 63.9 43.1 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.5 12.7 8.1 96.7 67.1 50.0 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 1.8 7.2 5.8 65.3 56.9 43.9 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 0.4 2.8 4.7 53.7 55.2 42.2 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 0.9 5.1 6.0 59.9 55.2 41.5 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 0.4 2.4 4.0 57.6 57.5 44.4 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 0.5 5.3 4.5 67.5 60.8 45.1 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 0.0 3.4 5.4 74.6 64.2 42.5 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.6 8.9 69.5 56.0 45.4 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.3 6.0 6.9 103.6 73.2 46.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 0.4 2.1 5.2 72.6 61.9 43.4 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.8 10.0 8.3 90.8 65.7 46.9 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.0 5.6 7.8 65.8 54.5 42.7 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 12.3 8.4 93.4 69.5 51.3 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 1.1 6.0 8.6 75.5 57.5 45.9 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 0.5 2.4 5.0 57.0 58.2 43.4 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 14.7 8.8 90.0 68.1 47.6 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.1 15.6 8.3 89.8 67.8 51.0 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.7 10.4 7.3 64.1 57.0 44.1 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.4 6.4 7.5 80.5 66.1 47.8 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.1 1.8 4.4 79.1 65.1 44.4 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 13.9 8.5 89.8 68.6 50.9 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 0.4 6.6 6.1 80.2 66.3 46.0 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.2 8.5 68.3 54.7 41.9 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.5 11.9 8.2 93.1 69.5 50.9 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------