***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.8 5.5 44.7 48.5 35.3 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.9 4.9 43.0 50.7 37.9 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.1 6.1 48.8 46.7 35.9 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.2 6.5 57.0 56.2 43.0 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.1 6.3 59.0 53.9 42.2 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.7 7.3 62.1 51.5 40.7 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.2 1.8 4.7 41.7 47.8 36.5 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.3 6.7 65.1 57.2 43.7 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.9 7.1 66.2 57.9 42.7 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.0 10.7 7.2 64.6 58.2 43.8 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.0 5.0 5.9 59.5 53.7 41.2 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.1 5.9 67.8 58.3 45.3 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.9 5.5 61.0 56.9 43.7 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.4 11.6 7.3 52.3 47.7 38.7 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.0 4.2 5.0 46.1 55.3 40.3 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.5 5.9 61.7 57.1 42.8 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.7 4.9 42.6 50.0 35.8 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 7.7 8.6 67.6 51.5 43.4 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.1 5.3 45.4 49.6 37.7 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.5 8.8 71.6 53.2 44.4 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.8 5.9 51.0 50.8 37.6 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.3 5.7 47.4 48.5 37.9 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.5 2.9 5.5 44.8 45.5 36.0 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.4 7.3 56.0 47.4 38.9 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 8.4 6.6 47.7 48.9 36.7 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.8 5.2 5.3 60.8 52.5 43.6 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 4.9 6.1 43.9 46.1 34.3 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.5 5.9 56.1 57.9 43.1 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.1 9.0 9.8 70.1 51.2 43.9 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.4 3.1 5.1 44.1 49.6 36.5 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------