***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 104.4 68.4 54.7 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.2 22.1 13.2 108.1 67.9 57.1 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.2 17.7 16.3 134.3 75.3 60.3 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.6 23.0 11.9 92.9 65.0 50.5 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.9 13.1 13.1 111.9 67.5 54.3 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 14.8 14.5 115.1 67.3 53.4 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.4 16.2 13.0 106.8 67.4 56.9 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.3 23.3 17.5 118.8 67.6 53.5 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.2 13.8 104.2 66.4 54.5 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.7 24.0 18.5 114.5 67.7 54.6 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 23.5 14.6 131.9 72.2 54.7 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.8 16.7 13.1 123.1 68.5 53.5 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.8 9.3 12.9 121.1 68.8 55.5 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.1 17.5 22.3 132.7 73.9 58.5 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.2 7.4 69.3 62.4 44.6 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.2 13.3 13.2 120.4 69.8 54.1 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 12.0 27.8 13.1 110.2 67.7 57.4 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 18.6 19.9 111.9 66.3 55.4 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 27.5 14.6 116.8 70.6 58.3 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 18.9 19.9 116.5 67.3 53.7 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 14.0 14.3 111.4 70.2 57.2 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 9.8 20.3 15.1 126.1 73.1 59.3 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.6 13.8 16.9 130.4 72.4 59.3 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.8 22.2 18.2 120.9 70.3 58.0 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.2 14.4 12.5 89.0 62.7 50.4 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.9 16.0 10.1 124.1 71.8 52.9 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.2 11.0 12.6 89.8 62.4 51.5 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.2 10.6 84.8 63.2 48.5 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.7 28.1 20.3 116.7 67.5 56.5 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.3 14.3 14.0 113.5 70.2 57.9 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------