***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 29.2 29.6 29.3 0.4 59.9 59.8 28.0 29.0 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 28.7 28.8 29.2 0.3 59.9 56.8 27.8 28.4 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 29.0 29.0 29.6 0.3 58.9 57.7 27.5 28.8 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 22.9 23.2 27.3 0.7 65.5 63.6 21.1 21.7 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 29.5 29.4 27.5 0.0 53.2 52.8 28.3 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.5 28.1 25.0 -0.1 52.2 51.7 27.2 28.1 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 28.3 28.7 29.4 0.6 62.5 60.9 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 17.8 17.5 25.6 -0.3 49.1 48.7 16.5 17.5 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 28.7 29.1 28.0 0.1 55.5 55.4 28.0 28.5 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 28.7 28.6 26.4 0.1 55.3 55.3 27.8 28.4 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.5 27.5 -0.3 47.2 48.4 28.1 28.6 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 28.7 27.9 27.0 -0.4 45.0 45.7 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.8 28.9 26.5 -0.7 39.1 41.3 28.4 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 28.7 28.9 27.4 0.2 56.0 55.4 27.3 28.6 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.4 29.4 0.8 66.3 64.4 28.7 29.2 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.4 30.0 27.1 -0.3 47.5 48.2 29.0 30.0 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 28.0 28.1 28.9 0.4 59.6 57.6 27.3 27.7 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 27.8 27.7 25.5 0.0 55.0 54.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 28.4 28.5 29.3 0.2 58.1 55.5 27.3 28.1 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 24.2 23.5 23.0 -0.3 48.5 48.3 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 29.1 28.9 28.8 0.2 57.5 56.6 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.6 28.9 29.0 0.6 63.3 60.4 27.7 28.3 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 28.8 28.7 29.4 0.2 55.4 54.6 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 28.6 28.6 27.5 0.2 56.5 56.0 27.1 28.4 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 28.9 28.9 27.5 0.0 52.9 54.3 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 29.7 28.6 26.7 -0.4 43.2 44.5 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 28.6 28.8 28.4 0.3 58.1 58.3 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 30.7 31.1 28.2 0.8 66.5 64.5 28.4 29.6 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 23.6 23.4 24.3 -0.2 49.7 50.3 21.8 23.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.5 29.0 29.4 0.4 61.5 58.7 27.4 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------