***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 28.3 27.9 28.9 0.9 66.7 60.0 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 27.2 27.7 28.8 0.9 62.5 59.6 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 28.1 27.7 29.3 0.9 64.1 60.1 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 21.5 21.2 27.5 1.4 68.0 64.5 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.5 27.4 0.7 61.3 58.6 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.8 24.7 0.5 60.4 57.3 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 27.8 27.7 28.9 1.1 65.8 61.6 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.8 25.8 0.4 56.3 55.4 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 27.5 27.7 27.6 0.8 62.9 59.5 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.8 26.4 0.8 61.3 59.1 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.1 27.2 0.5 58.0 56.0 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.5 27.1 0.3 54.4 53.8 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.3 26.0 0.1 53.0 52.1 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 28.2 27.8 26.9 0.8 62.4 59.2 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 29.2 29.1 28.7 1.5 70.0 65.8 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.2 26.8 0.5 57.6 56.1 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.9 28.5 1.0 64.3 60.6 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.8 27.1 25.6 0.8 61.3 58.8 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.0 27.2 29.0 0.8 61.5 58.9 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.0 22.9 0.3 54.9 54.1 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 28.1 27.8 28.4 0.9 62.9 59.9 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 28.1 27.7 28.6 1.1 66.3 61.2 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.5 27.7 29.0 0.8 60.4 58.8 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 27.9 27.2 27.2 0.9 63.1 59.9 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 28.3 28.0 27.1 0.8 64.9 59.7 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 28.2 27.9 26.8 0.2 53.3 53.3 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 28.2 27.8 27.9 0.9 65.9 60.2 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.1 28.0 1.4 68.8 65.0 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.6 24.3 0.5 57.8 56.4 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 27.8 27.5 29.0 0.9 63.5 60.2 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------