***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 31.3 30.1 29.7 0.9 61.4 60.0 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.7 29.6 0.8 59.1 58.6 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.6 30.1 30.1 0.9 61.8 59.7 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 24.5 24.1 28.3 1.4 67.7 65.2 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.8 31.1 28.1 0.7 59.1 58.3 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 30.4 30.3 25.7 0.8 62.0 59.3 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 30.4 29.4 29.7 1.1 63.5 61.2 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 19.1 18.9 26.7 0.5 58.2 56.7 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.3 28.3 0.8 61.4 59.2 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.4 27.3 0.9 62.7 60.0 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 30.3 30.6 28.0 0.5 56.5 56.3 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 30.0 29.8 28.0 0.3 54.6 54.6 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 31.0 30.6 26.8 0.1 49.4 52.2 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.7 29.9 27.6 0.7 60.4 58.4 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 31.8 31.8 29.8 1.7 72.4 67.7 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 31.8 31.8 27.7 0.6 56.5 56.8 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.7 28.7 29.3 0.9 62.6 59.3 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 29.5 29.0 26.4 0.8 62.3 59.6 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.4 29.7 0.7 57.4 57.7 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.5 23.8 0.4 56.6 55.8 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.7 29.1 0.8 60.2 58.7 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 30.2 29.8 29.4 1.0 62.5 59.6 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.4 29.8 0.7 57.9 57.6 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 30.1 29.4 27.9 0.8 61.4 59.7 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 30.3 30.3 27.8 0.7 59.3 58.5 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.6 30.7 27.9 0.4 54.5 55.5 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 30.4 29.7 28.7 0.8 60.5 59.6 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 31.8 32.1 29.0 1.7 71.4 67.2 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.6 25.2 25.1 0.5 58.0 56.8 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 30.6 29.6 29.8 0.9 61.3 59.8 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------