***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 30.7 29.9 29.9 0.9 60.9 60.9 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 30.5 29.8 30.0 0.8 58.5 60.7 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.1 30.1 0.7 56.5 58.5 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 22.3 22.1 27.3 0.7 60.0 59.1 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 30.2 29.3 27.6 -0.1 49.7 49.9 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.7 27.7 24.9 -0.4 46.0 44.9 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 30.0 29.8 30.1 1.1 64.6 63.3 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 16.9 25.6 -0.4 45.9 46.0 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.0 28.4 0.3 52.7 53.5 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.6 26.6 0.2 52.7 52.5 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.7 28.9 27.7 -0.4 45.4 45.5 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.8 27.9 26.9 -0.6 41.4 43.1 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.1 28.2 26.6 -1.0 35.7 38.1 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.5 28.0 0.6 56.8 58.5 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 29.9 29.7 29.9 0.8 61.0 60.2 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 31.0 29.1 27.2 -0.5 44.0 44.1 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 29.7 29.6 29.7 1.0 63.6 62.3 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.0 25.6 0.2 54.1 52.6 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.3 30.0 0.8 56.5 59.7 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 23.3 23.2 -0.3 46.9 46.9 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.0 29.3 0.4 52.9 55.7 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.5 29.9 1.3 69.5 65.8 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.4 30.0 0.7 56.2 58.5 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.9 28.7 28.0 0.5 55.8 56.2 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.3 27.9 0.2 51.8 52.8 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 27.8 28.1 26.6 -0.8 37.8 40.8 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.4 29.7 28.9 0.6 58.2 58.0 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.8 28.4 0.8 60.5 59.5 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.2 24.5 -0.1 49.2 49.3 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 30.4 29.8 30.1 0.9 59.4 61.2 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------