***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.4 18.0 -0.1 49.6 49.6 15.2 15.4 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.4 17.9 0.0 55.3 53.0 15.1 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 17.6 17.6 18.4 0.0 53.5 53.2 17.0 17.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 13.4 15.8 0.1 57.0 55.5 12.2 13.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.0 13.9 15.8 -0.2 49.0 46.9 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 13.0 13.1 13.8 0.0 53.7 52.5 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.7 18.1 0.1 56.5 55.1 15.1 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 8.9 8.7 13.7 -0.1 48.0 48.4 7.8 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.2 15.1 16.0 -0.2 49.2 47.2 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 15.1 15.0 14.4 0.0 50.9 50.9 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.3 15.6 -0.2 45.3 46.0 14.1 14.3 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.8 14.6 -0.2 45.4 45.8 12.2 12.9 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.5 13.9 -0.4 36.2 38.7 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.7 15.6 15.9 0.1 54.5 53.5 15.2 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.3 17.7 0.2 57.2 57.3 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.2 14.9 -0.2 44.9 45.7 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 15.9 15.9 17.7 0.1 57.0 54.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 13.6 13.6 13.6 0.0 52.9 52.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.4 18.0 0.0 53.9 52.3 15.0 15.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.5 9.4 11.5 0.0 49.5 50.4 9.1 9.4 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.0 14.9 17.2 -0.2 49.0 47.8 14.6 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 14.9 14.9 17.9 0.2 58.5 57.5 14.4 14.8 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.7 18.0 0.0 52.8 51.6 14.5 14.7 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 15.4 15.4 15.8 0.0 55.2 53.2 14.9 15.2 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.2 14.9 16.6 -0.4 40.9 42.0 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.9 13.6 -0.2 43.8 44.3 13.6 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.5 17.2 -0.3 46.1 46.5 15.1 15.6 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.9 14.0 16.4 0.3 61.2 59.3 13.5 13.8 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.7 13.0 0.0 51.1 51.5 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 15.7 15.6 18.3 0.0 55.4 54.2 15.2 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------