***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.8 17.4 0.2 58.4 53.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.4 17.3 0.3 59.3 55.9 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 16.6 17.0 17.8 0.3 60.0 56.1 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.1 15.2 0.5 64.6 59.9 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.5 14.9 0.1 54.2 53.4 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.6 13.3 0.2 57.0 56.3 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 17.5 0.4 62.0 57.3 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.8 12.9 0.1 51.9 52.2 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.7 15.0 0.1 54.0 53.3 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.3 13.6 0.2 54.1 54.0 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.9 14.5 0.0 50.5 51.7 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.1 13.6 -0.1 49.3 50.0 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 12.4 13.1 12.6 -0.2 46.7 47.8 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.8 15.0 0.3 58.7 56.3 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 16.1 16.2 16.8 0.6 65.5 61.8 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.7 13.8 0.0 52.3 52.2 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.4 17.0 0.4 60.4 56.8 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.9 12.8 12.6 0.2 56.8 55.1 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 0.3 58.9 55.6 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.7 10.4 0.1 51.8 52.8 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.6 16.4 0.1 56.2 53.3 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 14.0 14.4 17.1 0.5 61.1 58.3 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.4 17.3 0.3 59.3 55.8 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.6 14.9 0.3 58.4 56.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.1 14.4 15.8 0.1 55.5 52.3 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.4 12.7 0.0 51.4 50.4 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.9 16.5 0.1 56.8 53.0 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 13.8 13.9 15.7 0.7 66.0 62.0 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.3 12.2 0.2 55.3 54.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.5 17.6 0.3 60.1 56.1 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------