***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.5 18.1 0.3 53.4 54.3 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.6 18.0 0.4 57.4 56.8 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.4 18.6 0.5 59.1 57.3 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.2 16.1 0.7 61.4 59.9 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.7 15.7 0.2 53.6 53.3 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.2 14.1 0.5 59.3 59.3 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 18.3 0.6 58.8 58.6 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.7 13.7 0.2 51.3 53.1 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.1 15.6 0.1 51.6 52.3 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 15.2 14.3 0.2 52.9 54.1 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.7 15.4 0.2 54.7 53.3 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.0 14.5 0.1 49.8 51.5 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.4 13.5 0.1 49.1 51.6 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.5 15.7 0.3 53.9 55.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.0 17.8 0.9 66.4 63.4 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.5 14.6 0.3 53.9 54.1 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.0 17.8 0.5 60.2 57.9 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.0 13.3 0.3 54.3 54.3 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.4 18.1 0.4 57.3 56.3 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.4 9.4 11.2 0.3 53.2 54.6 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.8 14.4 17.1 0.1 50.5 52.2 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.0 17.9 0.6 62.8 58.9 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.9 14.8 18.1 0.4 57.7 56.0 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.3 15.6 0.3 54.9 55.1 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.6 16.4 0.1 48.8 51.1 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.3 13.6 0.2 53.8 53.8 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.2 17.2 0.2 53.0 53.1 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.4 14.3 16.6 0.9 65.5 62.9 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.2 12.9 0.3 54.1 54.6 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.0 18.4 0.5 58.4 57.6 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------