***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.8 18.3 -0.2 50.1 49.6 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.1 18.4 0.3 58.6 56.8 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.4 18.9 0.2 57.5 55.3 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.9 16.2 0.2 55.3 53.9 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.3 16.3 -0.2 49.1 48.8 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.6 14.0 -0.1 49.2 49.5 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.3 18.6 0.3 58.3 57.1 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.1 8.9 14.1 0.0 54.1 51.6 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 16.5 -0.1 53.4 51.0 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.6 15.0 0.2 57.3 55.0 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.0 16.2 -0.1 49.8 49.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.3 15.0 -0.2 50.1 48.0 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.6 13.7 14.4 -0.5 39.3 41.3 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.4 16.5 0.3 60.5 57.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.8 18.2 0.1 56.8 54.7 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 15.4 -0.2 47.3 47.2 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.6 18.3 0.4 59.8 58.8 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.8 14.2 14.2 0.2 59.2 55.8 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.3 18.6 0.3 59.2 56.9 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.0 12.1 0.1 56.0 53.7 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.5 17.7 0.0 52.6 51.6 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.5 18.6 0.6 63.4 61.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.6 18.6 0.3 58.5 56.7 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 16.5 0.3 60.2 57.3 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.8 16.8 -0.6 39.7 41.6 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.4 13.8 -0.5 41.4 42.0 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.1 17.4 -0.4 45.0 45.3 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.8 16.8 0.2 59.3 56.0 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.7 13.6 0.2 59.2 55.6 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.3 16.2 18.7 0.3 58.7 56.4 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------