***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.0 18.3 -0.9 39.3 37.8 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.7 15.5 18.0 -1.0 38.2 37.2 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 17.2 17.3 18.5 -1.0 36.0 36.2 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.6 12.9 15.7 -0.9 31.4 33.8 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.7 13.9 16.4 -0.9 32.2 33.7 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.3 13.8 -0.6 36.6 37.9 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.9 15.8 18.1 -1.0 39.6 37.4 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.5 13.9 -0.7 36.2 38.0 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.5 16.7 -0.9 32.2 34.4 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.3 14.9 -0.7 35.9 37.5 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.3 -0.9 29.7 32.7 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.4 15.2 -0.7 37.3 38.2 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 13.5 13.7 15.0 -0.9 24.2 29.3 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 15.5 16.1 16.4 -0.7 37.6 38.7 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 16.0 15.9 18.1 -0.9 30.5 33.2 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.2 15.3 15.7 -0.9 26.9 31.4 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.2 16.5 17.8 -1.0 40.1 37.7 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.9 13.5 14.1 -0.7 34.1 36.2 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 16.8 15.9 18.1 -1.0 37.7 36.8 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.5 12.3 -0.6 36.7 37.9 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.2 17.7 -0.9 32.4 34.6 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.9 18.2 -0.8 43.8 40.6 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.4 18.2 -1.0 37.5 36.3 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.1 16.4 -0.8 34.2 35.8 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.1 17.2 -1.2 30.7 32.3 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.3 14.1 -0.6 35.9 36.9 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.4 17.8 -1.0 36.7 36.7 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.4 16.5 -0.8 32.5 35.4 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 12.6 13.4 -0.7 35.9 37.2 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.0 18.4 -1.0 39.2 38.5 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------