***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 26.2 36.3 15.5 51.5 34.3 30.7 34.6 42.5 54.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 28.0 28.2 19.4 63.6 39.2 34.9 25.6 41.6 66.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 24.7 33.9 17.9 59.4 37.8 32.4 25.2 45.5 66.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 27.6 37.9 16.6 58.8 41.1 32.6 32.8 44.7 57.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 22.2 31.3 20.5 66.7 47.5 38.4 25.2 31.7 40.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 25.5 37.4 22.0 60.4 40.7 36.1 33.3 39.1 45.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 25.6 33.6 18.3 58.5 35.6 32.7 32.2 40.9 50.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 71.7 62.1 26.9 76.1 51.5 43.5 43.9 61.6 82.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 29.1 37.5 22.4 67.8 45.3 38.4 29.4 41.8 50.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 39.7 52.7 27.5 72.1 48.4 40.3 39.6 53.3 61.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 27.7 36.0 16.1 62.0 48.7 37.7 25.7 37.5 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 38.9 31.9 17.5 69.2 51.7 42.5 26.1 31.6 46.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 17.3 27.7 17.4 64.1 48.1 39.0 18.9 29.3 45.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 43.2 56.4 28.1 66.6 44.8 37.1 38.5 60.2 66.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 13.1 28.4 15.1 57.8 41.9 31.0 17.7 32.7 40.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 21.8 32.9 14.7 58.1 46.7 37.0 21.8 36.0 47.0 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 30.2 34.2 20.2 62.5 35.8 32.3 33.1 43.5 53.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 32.9 43.6 35.8 78.7 50.4 43.3 38.3 43.4 51.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 28.6 36.3 19.2 63.6 40.3 35.0 35.0 43.5 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 62.7 58.9 42.5 92.9 57.1 49.1 41.7 57.3 66.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 28.8 34.9 17.7 59.2 40.6 34.0 27.1 40.8 52.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 32.7 35.2 22.4 66.5 36.3 34.1 33.7 38.4 55.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 30.1 31.3 19.2 62.1 39.6 34.7 27.2 42.2 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 40.3 48.4 27.8 68.6 46.5 38.2 41.8 51.3 71.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 25.5 33.8 20.0 58.8 38.4 32.2 31.4 41.7 53.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 35.9 37.5 19.6 85.0 59.5 50.4 22.6 30.5 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 26.1 27.8 18.7 53.5 34.6 30.9 27.1 44.5 64.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 15.4 23.0 15.0 56.5 41.0 32.5 19.2 25.9 37.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 47.6 63.9 37.7 81.4 51.3 44.3 46.3 63.3 87.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.7 25.0 18.4 60.5 38.5 34.0 21.8 29.1 40.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------