***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.6 18.4 5.9 139.8 76.3 54.3 2.4 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.1 21.8 6.9 126.1 73.6 53.0 2.1 4.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.1 22.9 6.2 126.6 75.5 51.7 2.1 6.8 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.0 23.2 5.7 111.5 75.4 52.0 1.9 6.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 23.8 6.0 105.9 77.8 53.3 2.6 7.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.3 17.0 9.0 101.6 71.8 51.3 0.8 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.3 14.3 6.3 110.7 72.0 51.7 2.3 5.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.3 40.9 7.4 102.7 74.9 52.6 5.5 14.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.2 24.6 6.8 113.5 78.4 53.8 6.5 10.3 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.3 28.5 8.1 113.7 76.7 53.6 7.4 11.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.6 19.1 4.7 91.8 77.9 51.2 4.4 7.2 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.4 20.6 4.7 81.8 76.7 50.7 2.4 7.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.6 22.3 5.1 76.4 72.1 49.6 1.0 5.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.1 30.3 9.5 128.1 75.6 53.9 8.6 14.2 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.6 9.2 4.5 108.3 75.2 52.2 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.7 17.3 4.7 87.6 76.4 51.4 1.0 6.4 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.2 22.2 7.5 124.9 73.8 52.9 4.0 10.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 21.8 10.3 123.1 79.0 54.9 5.5 8.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 20.3 7.0 136.0 74.6 53.4 4.0 6.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 8.9 31.6 11.1 118.1 77.8 55.8 11.8 14.7 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.7 31.3 5.9 121.4 80.0 54.3 3.4 8.1 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.7 27.1 8.4 132.9 75.2 53.6 4.1 10.1 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.9 25.0 7.3 146.3 75.8 54.1 3.8 8.8 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.0 24.5 8.8 124.8 76.7 53.7 6.7 8.8 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.8 23.7 7.3 143.9 79.5 54.7 3.5 6.8 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.6 25.1 5.0 93.3 78.0 54.3 0.5 5.6 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 28.7 7.1 141.3 77.0 54.3 2.6 7.4 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 14.3 5.0 101.4 74.0 52.2 1.1 4.1 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 31.8 10.6 120.5 78.9 55.5 8.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 1.9 11.0 6.5 124.8 74.0 52.5 1.8 3.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------