***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 0.8 8.7 4.6 77.0 67.2 46.7 0.1 1.8 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.3 8.7 6.4 100.7 63.5 46.6 1.2 5.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.8 13.5 6.1 100.8 70.2 46.9 1.6 7.7 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.2 12.5 4.9 86.1 70.6 48.6 0.2 2.7 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 0.3 6.7 6.3 100.8 72.5 48.6 0.0 0.6 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 0.3 4.9 5.9 75.3 69.5 48.5 0.0 0.7 4.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.2 10.2 5.9 87.6 58.8 44.9 0.9 5.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.8 14.3 7.9 113.8 70.7 52.2 1.3 3.9 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.4 11.9 7.6 109.1 75.8 49.7 0.0 0.8 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 0.9 13.0 8.6 110.3 72.5 50.7 0.0 1.9 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 0.4 6.1 5.2 100.9 72.6 50.9 0.1 0.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 0.6 7.4 5.2 106.8 71.1 51.7 0.0 1.2 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.0 3.7 4.6 88.9 68.5 49.5 0.0 0.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.5 18.4 8.7 100.0 69.8 49.3 3.6 8.3 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 0.3 5.5 4.3 81.2 71.9 44.5 0.0 0.7 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 0.4 4.4 4.0 83.9 70.2 48.9 0.0 0.9 2.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.0 9.3 6.4 91.5 59.9 46.2 0.4 4.4 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 15.6 10.4 110.8 70.6 52.6 0.3 4.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 0.9 12.2 6.5 106.7 67.1 47.2 1.0 2.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.2 19.5 11.9 133.4 71.2 55.2 0.3 2.3 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 0.5 12.4 5.8 101.1 75.7 51.2 0.4 1.2 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 14.7 7.2 104.9 68.2 48.0 0.5 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 1.7 17.0 6.5 107.7 70.3 48.4 1.6 4.5 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 2.4 19.6 8.9 106.3 72.3 50.6 1.2 5.8 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 0.8 6.8 5.5 81.5 66.9 45.5 0.0 1.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 1.5 3.2 3.9 93.6 68.1 52.6 0.0 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 12.1 5.3 74.4 64.0 44.5 1.3 6.9 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 0.3 7.9 4.3 83.6 72.1 47.9 0.0 0.8 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.2 16.6 10.5 109.6 69.1 52.4 0.9 8.6 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.9 11.4 6.0 96.1 65.1 46.0 0.4 5.2 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------