***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.4 4.6 3.4 43.3 56.5 44.7 1.0 2.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.1 3.3 3.8 51.4 52.5 39.7 0.6 2.8 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.8 4.9 4.0 51.2 54.8 40.9 0.9 3.9 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 1.8 6.4 4.7 71.6 61.6 43.6 0.8 4.2 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.1 4.8 5.3 71.9 62.3 44.0 0.8 2.6 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.4 8.8 5.6 59.5 56.8 37.1 1.9 6.6 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 1.0 3.6 3.9 52.9 51.2 38.6 0.8 2.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.4 6.5 70.6 63.8 46.6 4.4 7.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.0 10.7 5.7 68.4 63.9 45.5 0.8 6.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 12.9 6.8 70.4 61.9 45.5 2.4 10.0 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.0 4.2 68.7 62.3 43.0 0.8 4.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.4 7.0 4.5 75.2 67.4 45.7 0.3 3.1 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.8 5.0 4.6 74.5 60.5 40.4 0.9 4.3 5.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.4 12.7 6.5 58.2 54.5 39.5 5.4 11.9 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 0.9 6.4 4.2 69.0 62.1 41.7 0.6 2.3 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 1.0 3.8 3.8 69.4 62.1 40.7 0.5 2.7 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.6 4.0 3.8 49.3 52.1 36.6 1.8 3.7 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.8 10.0 8.9 74.7 59.0 42.5 2.0 7.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.2 3.6 47.6 52.4 38.0 1.9 3.2 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.4 10.3 83.3 62.6 43.8 4.0 4.8 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.5 4.3 56.7 62.8 47.4 0.9 7.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.8 4.9 4.1 46.1 51.3 36.6 1.6 4.1 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.2 3.7 45.4 50.6 35.6 1.0 4.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 11.3 6.6 63.1 54.7 40.5 3.8 10.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.4 8.9 4.8 53.5 59.8 40.7 2.9 8.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.2 8.9 3.6 73.0 66.8 43.1 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 6.4 4.4 45.8 57.0 40.7 1.5 5.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.7 5.0 4.2 70.4 63.5 42.7 1.2 3.6 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 12.8 9.6 78.9 59.7 42.8 4.6 8.4 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.3 3.8 4.0 51.5 54.0 40.1 1.4 3.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------