***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 1.9 2.1 1.5 12.6 29.7 19.1 3.8 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 1.5 2.2 2.3 20.5 32.3 27.1 2.4 6.3 20.3 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.6 14.3 24.7 19.0 2.0 5.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 1.0 0.0 1.3 11.7 20.7 17.7 6.2 9.3 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 1.8 3.2 3.0 25.6 32.9 25.7 3.2 7.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 1.8 0.1 1.5 14.8 28.8 24.1 0.2 6.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 2.3 1.6 2.2 19.3 31.9 22.1 1.7 11.2 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.6 13.7 5.2 43.6 43.7 36.9 10.3 15.5 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 1.9 2.5 2.4 20.3 27.4 21.6 5.2 9.8 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 3.3 6.3 4.1 29.5 34.0 28.3 5.8 10.3 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 1.9 3.3 2.0 20.2 32.9 23.9 3.4 8.8 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 5.3 3.1 36.9 44.2 36.2 3.3 7.8 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.6 2.5 3.1 34.1 41.2 37.0 0.5 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 3.4 1.2 3.5 23.0 29.4 27.0 1.6 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 2.1 2.6 2.0 19.5 29.8 22.6 4.0 8.2 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.0 2.9 2.1 22.2 33.4 27.5 2.9 6.6 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.6 2.8 2.4 21.3 32.0 23.6 2.9 8.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 6.6 6.3 39.3 36.1 34.1 6.0 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.0 18.0 30.2 25.4 1.2 5.8 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 12.3 10.2 9.2 61.6 47.4 45.3 4.5 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 1.1 0.3 1.8 15.0 22.8 16.9 0.9 9.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.8 24.0 35.1 26.9 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 1.0 1.7 1.8 14.8 27.8 23.1 2.3 4.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.8 5.0 3.5 23.6 27.9 25.7 7.1 13.0 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 1.9 1.3 2.5 18.9 28.4 19.8 2.1 10.4 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 7.8 8.4 7.1 83.3 59.2 51.2 1.0 5.1 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.4 1.9 14.3 27.0 19.7 3.5 7.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 1.3 1.4 1.5 14.3 26.2 20.3 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 9.6 7.1 44.9 41.1 37.4 6.3 15.8 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.1 0.9 1.9 17.3 30.9 24.1 1.4 4.6 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------