***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 30.4 32.6 32.0 2.9 92.2 88.5 28.0 29.0 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 15 85 100 29.8 30.7 32.0 2.6 88.5 85.4 27.8 28.4 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 30.0 30.7 31.6 2.5 89.6 84.3 27.5 28.8 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 23.6 24.0 29.6 2.2 85.5 82.7 21.1 21.7 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 30.9 31.9 29.9 2.4 89.2 85.0 28.3 29.2 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 30.0 31.0 27.5 2.2 91.0 85.4 27.2 28.1 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 29.5 31.0 32.1 2.9 91.3 87.7 27.6 28.1 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 19.1 20.3 28.4 2.8 92.5 89.2 16.5 17.5 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 30.2 31.9 30.5 2.7 91.5 87.2 28.0 28.5 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 30.4 31.6 29.1 2.8 91.2 88.3 27.8 28.4 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 30.4 32.3 29.6 2.5 91.1 86.9 28.1 28.6 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 30.2 31.7 29.6 2.7 93.6 89.2 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 31.2 33.1 29.1 2.5 93.0 88.0 28.4 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 29.4 30.5 29.6 2.4 89.4 83.8 27.3 28.6 29.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 31.2 31.9 30.8 2.5 88.7 86.3 28.7 29.2 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 31.9 32.7 29.3 2.3 87.9 84.7 29.0 30.0 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 29.0 29.4 31.2 2.3 85.3 81.5 27.3 27.7 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 29.1 30.2 28.1 2.7 89.6 87.1 26.5 27.5 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 29.6 30.2 31.9 2.6 88.5 84.8 27.3 28.1 29.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 25.6 26.6 25.9 2.3 87.9 85.1 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 30.3 32.1 31.3 2.6 91.2 86.5 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 29.4 29.8 30.8 2.1 81.9 79.1 27.7 28.3 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 29.5 30.6 31.6 2.7 90.4 85.7 27.4 28.6 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 29.3 30.5 29.8 2.5 90.0 85.4 27.1 28.4 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 30.5 32.4 30.4 2.9 91.4 88.2 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 31.0 32.4 29.1 2.5 92.7 87.9 28.0 29.4 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 29.7 31.9 31.2 3.1 93.1 89.7 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 31.2 31.6 30.1 2.2 85.3 82.5 28.4 29.6 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 24.9 26.0 27.1 2.6 89.9 86.8 21.8 23.4 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 29.7 31.2 32.2 2.7 89.9 86.1 27.4 28.2 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------