***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 31.4 32.2 31.1 2.5 80.1 74.4 28.2 30.0 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 30.6 31.6 31.0 2.1 79.4 70.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 30.6 31.2 30.7 2.0 75.6 69.9 27.7 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 24.7 25.0 29.1 2.0 74.7 71.2 21.3 23.1 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 31.6 32.3 29.0 1.9 77.5 70.2 28.8 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.9 27.0 1.9 77.6 70.3 27.1 29.5 30.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.4 31.0 2.4 81.9 72.7 27.6 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 19.7 20.4 27.7 2.3 81.7 72.2 15.9 18.8 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 30.7 31.3 29.4 2.1 79.9 71.1 27.9 29.7 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.7 32.0 28.1 2.2 80.3 71.3 27.1 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.2 31.9 28.7 2.0 79.2 71.0 28.0 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 30.8 31.5 28.8 2.2 82.7 71.9 26.8 29.6 30.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 31.6 32.2 28.2 2.0 77.9 70.0 28.2 30.7 31.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.3 28.5 1.8 74.9 67.9 27.0 29.5 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 31.9 32.7 30.0 2.3 80.7 75.2 28.4 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 32.3 32.7 28.5 1.8 75.5 69.3 28.9 31.5 32.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 29.7 30.2 30.2 1.8 76.5 68.7 27.6 28.4 29.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 29.5 30.1 27.1 2.0 80.1 69.2 26.1 28.6 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 30.4 31.2 30.9 2.1 79.0 70.1 27.4 29.0 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 26.3 26.8 25.1 1.8 77.6 68.0 21.8 25.1 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 30.6 31.4 30.2 2.1 77.8 71.0 27.6 29.3 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.7 29.9 1.6 76.4 67.0 27.8 28.6 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.7 30.5 2.1 78.2 69.9 27.3 29.0 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.6 28.6 1.9 77.3 68.7 26.8 29.0 29.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.8 29.4 2.5 79.8 74.7 27.7 29.9 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 31.3 31.9 28.4 1.9 80.4 69.4 27.9 30.3 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 30.7 31.6 30.3 2.7 82.2 75.9 27.6 29.2 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.9 32.3 29.5 2.0 75.5 71.2 28.8 30.4 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 25.2 25.8 26.2 2.0 79.5 68.7 21.3 24.3 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.7 31.6 31.2 2.2 79.2 71.7 27.8 29.1 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------