***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 31.2 32.8 32.6 3.3 89.1 81.1 28.0 29.1 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 30.9 31.6 32.5 3.0 84.4 76.4 28.4 29.2 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 31.0 32.2 32.2 2.8 84.9 76.1 28.2 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 24.5 25.8 30.5 2.6 83.7 76.8 20.5 21.5 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 32.3 33.4 30.5 2.7 84.5 76.7 28.6 29.3 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.7 28.4 2.6 82.5 78.1 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 30.2 31.4 32.6 3.2 86.0 78.2 28.1 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 19.6 20.9 29.3 3.3 86.3 80.6 16.4 17.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 31.4 32.7 30.9 3.0 88.5 78.5 27.7 28.9 29.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 31.1 32.7 29.7 3.2 87.3 79.6 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 31.7 33.1 30.2 2.9 85.4 78.3 27.9 29.0 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 31.1 32.2 30.4 3.2 86.3 80.1 27.0 28.0 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 32.3 33.4 29.7 2.8 83.2 78.4 28.1 28.9 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 30.7 31.9 30.1 2.8 83.0 75.3 27.7 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 31.8 33.0 31.3 2.9 86.4 80.4 28.8 29.3 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 33.2 34.2 29.9 2.6 80.9 76.4 28.7 30.1 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 29.9 30.4 31.6 2.5 79.7 72.6 27.7 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 29.8 31.0 28.8 3.1 85.4 78.0 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 30.5 31.3 32.5 2.9 83.5 76.0 27.6 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 26.3 27.4 26.7 2.9 83.1 77.0 22.3 23.5 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 31.2 32.5 31.7 2.9 88.0 77.5 28.2 28.8 30.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.4 30.9 31.2 2.3 77.1 70.7 28.4 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 30.6 31.6 32.1 3.0 83.4 76.6 28.2 28.7 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 30.3 32.2 30.3 2.9 84.6 76.6 27.4 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 31.5 33.4 30.9 3.2 89.8 80.2 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 31.9 32.8 30.0 2.9 86.4 79.7 27.8 28.9 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 30.7 32.8 31.8 3.5 90.9 82.0 27.8 28.8 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 31.7 32.9 30.9 2.6 83.0 77.1 28.3 29.2 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 25.7 26.8 27.8 3.1 85.7 77.7 22.0 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 30.7 32.0 32.7 3.1 86.0 77.7 27.7 29.2 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------