***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 32.4 33.4 34.6 4.8 97.9 95.3 28.0 29.1 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 31.8 32.9 35.0 4.6 94.5 92.8 28.4 29.2 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 32.4 33.0 34.3 4.3 91.9 91.2 27.8 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 25.3 26.1 31.1 3.4 88.2 87.6 20.8 22.2 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 33.2 34.0 32.5 4.1 91.6 91.6 28.5 29.4 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 30.3 31.0 28.7 3.1 87.0 85.8 27.0 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 31.7 33.6 35.2 5.0 96.3 94.9 28.0 28.8 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 19.8 20.8 30.5 4.3 92.9 92.4 17.2 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 32.2 33.5 33.7 4.6 95.5 94.1 28.0 28.6 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.3 31.8 4.6 94.4 93.5 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 32.4 33.1 32.1 4.1 92.3 91.7 28.2 28.9 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 30.5 33.0 31.6 4.2 93.5 92.8 27.3 28.5 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 32.1 34.2 31.6 4.2 94.1 93.6 28.6 29.7 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 31.4 32.8 32.5 4.3 93.3 91.8 27.6 28.3 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 32.3 34.0 33.6 3.8 91.9 91.3 29.2 30.3 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 33.1 33.8 31.6 3.7 90.2 90.4 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 31.2 32.6 34.0 4.2 91.6 91.4 27.7 28.3 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 30.6 31.6 30.7 4.6 94.4 92.5 26.6 27.4 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 31.3 32.8 34.8 4.6 94.3 92.5 27.5 28.6 30.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 26.4 27.1 27.8 3.7 88.9 88.5 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 32.2 33.1 34.4 4.5 94.4 92.6 27.8 29.1 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 31.6 32.7 33.6 4.0 89.1 90.0 28.0 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 32.1 32.8 34.6 4.9 97.1 93.9 27.7 28.3 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 31.2 32.4 32.7 4.5 94.8 92.6 27.3 28.1 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 32.2 33.5 33.3 4.6 96.5 95.2 28.0 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 32.0 33.8 30.9 4.0 94.6 92.6 28.0 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 31.7 33.3 34.1 5.0 97.9 96.5 28.0 28.7 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 32.1 32.8 31.9 3.2 88.1 86.9 29.1 30.3 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 26.1 26.8 29.6 4.4 93.1 91.7 22.4 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 31.9 33.0 35.1 4.7 94.6 93.4 27.8 28.8 30.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------