***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 16.2 17.0 20.4 2.2 94.4 90.7 15.2 15.4 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 16.2 16.7 20.0 1.7 90.3 85.5 15.1 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.5 19.2 19.9 1.6 87.9 84.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.1 14.6 17.5 1.3 86.6 81.0 12.2 13.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 14.5 15.3 17.3 1.4 88.4 83.4 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 13.5 14.0 15.4 1.2 89.0 83.7 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 16.4 16.9 20.4 2.0 92.2 88.5 15.1 15.5 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 9.5 10.4 15.7 1.8 96.2 91.4 7.8 8.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 16.0 16.9 18.0 1.8 94.4 90.1 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 15.9 16.5 16.3 1.7 95.2 90.2 14.6 15.0 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 15.3 16.1 16.9 1.4 91.2 85.0 14.1 14.3 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 13.6 14.4 16.7 1.7 94.7 90.0 12.2 12.9 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 14.5 15.2 15.7 1.2 88.5 82.8 13.4 13.9 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 16.5 17.0 17.6 1.4 90.0 83.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 17.0 17.7 18.7 1.5 89.5 84.1 15.7 16.2 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 16.2 16.8 16.4 1.1 85.9 79.9 14.8 15.3 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 16.7 17.0 19.1 1.4 86.7 81.4 15.5 15.8 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 14.4 14.5 15.5 1.5 93.1 87.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 16.1 16.6 19.9 1.7 90.3 85.4 15.0 15.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 10.0 10.4 13.6 1.4 89.7 86.5 9.1 9.4 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 15.5 16.2 19.4 1.8 92.6 88.0 14.6 14.9 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 15.5 15.9 19.0 1.2 82.7 78.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 15.3 16.1 19.7 1.7 93.2 87.1 14.5 14.7 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 15.9 16.8 17.6 1.4 91.3 85.1 14.9 15.2 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 15.8 16.7 18.9 2.0 95.0 90.2 14.7 15.0 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 14.8 15.4 15.9 1.4 91.6 85.4 13.6 14.0 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 16.3 17.2 19.6 2.2 95.7 91.5 15.1 15.6 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 14.3 15.1 17.9 1.2 85.9 79.7 13.5 13.8 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 13.7 14.8 14.9 1.5 93.6 88.6 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 16.5 16.9 20.4 1.9 91.1 87.2 15.2 15.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------