***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.5 18.4 1.0 71.1 63.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.5 14.9 18.2 0.8 65.5 61.2 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 17.3 17.4 18.0 0.6 62.7 59.0 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.2 15.9 0.6 66.1 59.9 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.1 13.9 15.5 0.6 66.0 59.7 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 12.9 12.7 13.9 0.8 71.7 63.8 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 15.6 15.5 18.4 1.0 68.7 63.8 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.5 8.6 14.0 0.9 73.6 65.9 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 15.7 15.4 15.8 0.7 69.6 61.5 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.0 14.4 0.8 71.3 63.4 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.5 15.1 0.7 68.1 62.1 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.3 15.1 1.0 73.1 66.4 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.1 14.3 0.9 70.9 64.8 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.9 15.2 15.8 0.6 64.1 59.9 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.2 16.9 0.9 72.6 63.7 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.4 15.3 14.9 0.7 67.1 61.6 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.4 17.3 0.5 60.8 58.5 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.7 13.4 13.8 0.7 68.2 62.3 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.6 18.1 0.7 64.5 60.3 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.5 11.9 0.5 65.0 59.3 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.1 17.2 0.7 67.6 60.9 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.4 17.2 0.4 59.7 56.8 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.9 17.7 0.7 66.9 61.1 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 15.5 15.0 15.7 0.6 64.8 60.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.9 15.2 16.8 1.0 71.4 65.0 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.2 14.7 1.0 73.1 66.1 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.2 17.6 1.1 73.8 66.3 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.9 16.3 0.6 67.7 60.3 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 12.6 12.7 13.1 0.7 68.6 62.4 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.8 15.6 18.5 0.8 66.7 61.7 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------