***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.2 19.7 2.0 81.4 73.2 14.7 15.5 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.3 19.4 1.7 80.8 71.2 14.3 15.3 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 18.9 19.3 19.2 1.4 78.4 69.0 17.1 18.0 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 14.9 15.5 17.0 1.2 73.7 67.4 12.3 13.2 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.2 16.6 1.2 74.8 67.1 12.8 13.6 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.7 13.9 14.9 1.1 74.7 67.4 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 16.9 17.7 19.6 1.9 81.5 73.0 14.8 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 9.6 10.1 15.1 1.5 81.2 72.4 7.5 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.3 17.0 1.4 77.5 69.3 13.7 15.1 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.7 15.9 15.5 1.3 78.5 70.2 14.1 15.0 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 15.2 15.4 16.2 1.2 74.8 68.1 13.5 14.5 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 13.4 13.6 16.1 1.4 79.1 71.2 11.7 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.3 15.1 1.0 70.1 65.9 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.6 17.1 16.8 1.3 80.2 69.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.3 18.1 1.4 77.9 69.9 14.8 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.5 15.8 1.0 70.0 65.5 14.3 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 16.9 17.4 18.5 1.4 78.3 68.9 15.2 15.8 16.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.8 14.8 1.3 80.1 70.2 12.1 12.8 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 16.4 16.9 19.2 1.6 80.9 70.6 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 10.0 10.2 13.0 1.2 78.0 69.0 8.4 9.2 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 15.9 16.3 18.4 1.5 77.6 69.7 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.5 16.0 18.3 1.2 77.9 67.5 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.4 18.8 1.5 81.7 71.2 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 16.0 16.3 16.8 1.2 79.6 69.1 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 16.2 16.8 18.0 1.8 80.9 73.5 14.2 14.6 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.5 14.8 15.5 1.1 73.6 66.7 13.4 14.1 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 17.3 18.2 18.9 2.1 83.1 74.8 14.3 15.9 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.7 17.4 1.1 72.9 67.0 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 14.1 14.6 14.2 1.3 80.6 71.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 17.0 17.6 19.7 1.7 80.9 71.5 14.7 15.4 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------