***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 16.4 17.8 21.2 2.4 92.5 82.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 16.3 16.7 20.8 1.9 85.8 76.8 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 19.0 19.6 20.6 1.8 83.0 77.9 17.2 18.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 14.6 15.3 18.4 1.5 83.2 74.9 12.9 13.2 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 15.3 15.6 18.0 1.5 82.6 75.7 13.4 14.3 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 14.1 14.5 16.2 1.6 85.2 78.3 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 16.5 17.1 21.1 2.2 86.9 79.5 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 10.0 12.1 16.5 2.0 91.4 82.9 8.4 8.8 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 16.5 17.4 18.5 1.8 86.5 79.7 15.1 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 16.5 17.0 16.9 1.8 87.6 80.4 14.9 15.4 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 16.1 16.5 17.5 1.6 84.5 77.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 14.1 14.6 17.4 1.9 89.3 81.5 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.4 15.6 16.4 1.4 81.5 76.7 13.4 14.6 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.3 18.3 1.5 84.4 74.5 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 17.4 17.9 19.4 1.8 86.4 79.7 15.9 16.2 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 16.8 17.1 17.1 1.3 81.0 74.4 15.1 16.1 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.0 17.3 19.8 1.5 79.5 72.0 15.8 16.3 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 14.6 15.7 16.2 1.7 85.3 78.1 12.9 13.5 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 16.5 16.7 20.7 1.8 84.5 76.4 15.4 16.0 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 10.4 10.9 14.2 1.5 82.4 75.8 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 16.3 16.7 19.9 2.0 87.3 80.2 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 15.9 16.0 19.5 1.2 74.9 68.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 16.0 16.4 20.3 1.9 86.5 77.8 14.6 15.4 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.0 18.2 1.7 84.6 77.3 15.3 15.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 16.4 17.7 19.4 2.2 89.1 82.1 14.6 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 15.4 15.6 16.8 1.6 83.3 77.8 14.0 14.9 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 16.4 18.6 20.3 2.5 91.9 83.7 14.9 15.3 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.8 18.8 1.6 83.3 75.6 13.0 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 14.1 14.7 15.5 1.7 85.6 77.5 12.4 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 16.9 17.2 21.1 2.0 86.3 78.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------