***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 17.7 18.3 22.5 3.3 97.9 96.7 15.6 16.3 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 17.9 18.6 21.7 2.5 93.2 90.6 15.1 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 19.8 21.1 21.9 2.5 94.4 91.9 17.1 18.3 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 15.0 16.2 18.8 1.9 92.5 86.5 12.9 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 16.2 17.6 19.3 2.2 93.9 89.6 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 14.4 14.8 16.4 1.5 85.4 81.1 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 17.7 18.8 22.3 3.0 95.2 94.3 15.3 16.7 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 10.5 12.7 17.4 2.5 97.0 94.7 8.4 9.5 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.6 20.8 3.2 99.4 97.7 15.5 16.3 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 17.1 18.8 18.5 2.8 98.4 96.8 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 16.6 18.1 18.8 2.1 95.5 90.4 14.8 15.3 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 14.5 15.9 18.1 2.4 96.4 93.0 13.4 13.6 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 15.7 16.2 17.0 1.4 82.1 79.4 14.2 14.8 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 17.9 18.2 19.6 2.1 92.7 90.3 16.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 18.1 19.2 20.5 1.8 87.8 82.5 16.2 16.9 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 17.0 17.4 17.8 1.4 81.8 78.5 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 18.1 18.4 20.9 2.2 90.0 88.8 15.8 17.0 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 15.8 16.3 17.2 2.2 94.2 92.9 13.5 14.7 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 17.5 18.1 21.7 2.6 93.7 91.2 15.7 16.6 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 12.0 12.5 15.1 2.2 94.3 92.2 9.3 10.5 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 17.1 17.7 21.9 2.9 96.5 94.7 15.3 16.0 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 17.0 17.2 21.0 2.0 88.1 86.5 15.1 16.0 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 17.0 17.6 21.9 2.8 94.6 94.0 15.0 16.0 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 17.5 17.8 19.5 2.2 94.5 91.5 16.0 16.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 17.5 18.9 21.2 3.0 98.2 96.1 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 15.6 16.4 16.6 1.7 86.7 84.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 18.0 20.0 21.7 3.2 98.4 96.8 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 15.5 16.2 19.2 1.5 84.6 79.7 14.4 14.7 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 14.5 16.3 16.7 2.4 95.9 94.6 12.5 13.6 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 17.9 18.9 22.3 2.9 94.4 93.2 15.7 16.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------