***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 22.2 37.5 23.8 60.0 37.6 34.3 34.6 42.5 49.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.2 34.6 23.4 62.2 40.1 36.3 29.4 42.5 60.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 24.8 28.7 24.0 57.1 36.8 33.0 26.8 45.0 67.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 25.6 35.7 22.4 60.2 39.4 34.0 30.2 40.4 61.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 20.7 27.8 21.6 60.3 38.3 33.8 25.2 33.4 40.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 23.6 32.4 26.1 66.1 37.8 33.9 30.7 36.7 45.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 26.9 34.3 24.0 64.2 39.7 37.3 32.5 44.2 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 40.6 48.2 27.5 67.3 37.9 35.6 47.1 61.5 74.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 26.1 31.8 23.7 59.5 35.5 33.1 31.4 43.5 56.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 39.2 45.1 29.7 66.2 37.3 35.5 41.6 55.7 64.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 26.7 32.7 20.7 61.4 38.3 33.8 26.9 39.4 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 20.0 29.7 20.4 66.0 39.2 35.8 25.3 33.3 43.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 17.1 26.6 20.2 65.2 40.9 34.9 20.0 32.5 38.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 39.3 51.8 34.1 62.3 37.2 33.8 38.3 61.8 71.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.9 28.0 17.6 57.7 41.2 34.3 17.7 32.7 52.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 22.1 30.5 20.1 63.4 39.8 34.4 21.8 40.7 48.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 33.2 37.0 23.3 62.3 39.1 36.8 36.0 46.8 53.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 30.5 41.1 36.1 68.2 37.1 35.7 40.2 48.7 53.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 27.3 36.0 23.8 61.5 39.4 35.3 32.2 44.2 55.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 34.7 41.8 36.0 69.6 35.3 35.1 39.7 53.9 69.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 29.1 27.6 22.2 55.5 37.0 31.9 25.2 44.8 57.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 27.7 36.6 24.7 63.4 39.2 36.2 33.7 38.4 56.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 26.3 27.9 24.8 60.3 37.5 33.6 27.1 39.7 52.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 40.8 40.6 31.5 62.1 35.8 33.5 39.3 57.3 74.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 21.2 33.3 23.6 58.3 36.9 32.3 31.4 41.4 53.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 17.4 26.7 17.5 65.8 39.0 31.9 23.9 30.5 40.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 23.4 34.4 24.4 59.5 35.3 32.9 30.5 45.8 63.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 17.0 20.5 21.0 62.1 40.3 35.2 17.4 25.7 38.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 44.5 47.4 37.1 67.3 35.0 34.2 46.1 60.0 90.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 19.3 22.8 23.7 61.7 38.2 35.7 20.1 27.8 38.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------