***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.1 15.7 8.7 111.1 71.0 54.6 1.4 4.6 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.3 16.7 7.9 103.7 70.1 51.8 1.8 4.0 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.7 18.4 9.1 110.0 71.7 53.2 2.7 6.8 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.1 20.3 8.8 119.6 72.1 55.4 1.7 6.2 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.9 20.3 9.3 131.9 73.9 56.6 1.7 4.8 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 10.3 16.8 11.4 134.6 74.5 56.4 0.6 8.5 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.6 13.7 7.8 106.8 68.7 55.9 1.6 7.7 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 23.6 33.0 11.2 133.0 72.7 58.6 6.2 18.8 25.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 14.4 19.2 10.3 126.0 73.1 56.8 6.6 11.7 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.6 23.8 12.2 127.7 71.4 57.6 5.1 12.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.8 17.5 8.8 134.1 73.9 57.9 4.3 7.1 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.8 17.8 8.6 138.3 74.3 58.6 2.4 7.7 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.2 21.6 9.0 139.7 75.0 57.2 1.0 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.4 23.0 12.3 99.6 66.7 51.7 4.8 13.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.6 10.4 7.4 115.0 76.5 57.4 0.3 1.5 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.4 15.7 8.9 139.9 75.1 57.5 1.2 3.5 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.2 24.9 8.2 100.9 72.1 53.0 3.6 9.1 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 14.8 13.7 110.8 69.5 55.2 5.1 10.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 19.8 8.4 106.9 70.3 51.2 2.8 9.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 17.6 21.8 14.6 120.9 70.4 57.7 9.9 13.9 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.9 21.8 9.1 117.0 73.1 55.2 3.4 8.4 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.1 26.1 9.4 112.0 71.2 52.0 3.8 8.1 18.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.6 21.8 9.4 112.0 71.4 52.2 2.9 7.4 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.5 20.8 11.7 104.4 69.9 53.0 4.9 8.6 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.8 20.2 9.5 116.1 71.9 53.5 1.6 5.1 19.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.6 25.2 7.0 137.8 78.1 55.9 1.4 3.4 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.3 22.4 9.0 109.5 70.7 53.1 2.6 6.9 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.3 12.5 8.4 123.7 74.7 57.4 0.9 3.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 25.6 31.3 14.4 109.1 68.1 54.4 8.9 22.8 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.5 11.5 8.5 111.8 70.6 53.9 1.5 4.0 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------