***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 10.0 6.5 76.8 64.2 43.5 1.3 7.4 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.8 6.8 4.5 53.4 54.2 40.1 1.1 4.1 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.4 10.9 6.7 72.0 60.7 41.9 2.5 6.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 1.6 9.0 7.6 89.7 70.8 45.8 0.4 4.0 7.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 0.3 4.2 7.3 91.0 67.9 44.1 0.0 0.7 3.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.1 4.4 7.2 82.2 64.8 45.8 0.2 1.0 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.9 5.2 63.4 57.4 42.5 1.0 5.1 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 1.5 7.9 8.9 97.8 67.7 47.4 0.2 3.5 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 0.3 8.3 7.9 93.5 66.3 44.2 0.0 0.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 0.4 7.3 9.7 98.9 67.8 46.9 0.0 1.0 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 0.2 5.2 6.3 89.9 69.8 46.3 0.0 0.4 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 0.1 6.9 6.2 90.0 68.0 47.1 0.0 0.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.2 2.8 5.6 82.0 65.6 47.3 0.0 0.1 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 17.4 10.9 88.3 63.1 46.0 2.2 9.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.3 4.8 5.6 84.5 71.5 47.7 0.0 0.6 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 0.3 2.6 6.1 88.3 68.8 48.4 0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.5 5.0 4.0 48.0 53.0 38.7 0.4 3.8 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.1 9.3 12.5 105.0 65.7 47.4 0.2 2.9 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.2 6.8 4.8 54.0 55.3 40.8 1.6 5.0 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.3 11.5 12.7 102.6 66.1 47.2 0.3 3.5 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 0.7 5.6 7.4 87.9 66.1 43.1 0.6 1.8 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.3 4.3 47.3 54.4 39.8 0.5 9.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.8 5.8 61.0 58.2 41.9 1.6 5.9 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 1.5 12.4 10.8 96.0 64.5 47.2 0.8 3.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 0.7 6.7 6.8 79.0 64.6 42.3 0.2 1.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.8 4.5 81.0 66.8 46.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.5 6.4 74.3 62.1 41.8 3.3 7.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.4 6.3 7.3 96.3 72.2 48.1 0.0 0.8 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 1.8 12.4 12.7 99.6 63.6 46.9 0.3 4.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.6 5.3 60.2 56.3 41.6 1.6 4.9 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------