***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 1.3 5.0 4.9 50.6 51.4 37.2 0.4 3.3 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.9 7.7 5.7 63.6 55.5 40.6 1.7 5.0 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.7 5.3 4.9 48.1 50.2 35.2 1.2 5.3 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 2.5 5.7 3.5 36.8 46.8 33.2 1.8 6.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 1.0 2.4 2.9 30.7 43.5 30.6 1.1 2.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.7 7.8 6.3 58.2 50.8 34.4 2.9 7.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.1 5.8 65.6 54.5 40.9 0.7 5.3 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.1 9.6 4.3 44.5 48.7 33.5 4.0 9.6 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.7 8.2 3.3 32.3 43.4 31.6 2.2 10.3 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 4.2 10.6 4.2 41.2 45.9 33.3 8.9 11.9 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.6 5.7 3.3 36.5 44.2 31.6 3.3 7.4 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.0 6.5 3.9 49.6 51.8 32.9 2.8 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 1.3 7.1 4.8 59.6 59.8 33.3 2.9 4.8 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 4.0 11.8 6.5 50.5 49.4 35.3 7.3 11.9 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.4 3.2 41.2 50.6 35.0 0.2 5.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.0 6.4 4.0 47.3 52.2 34.4 1.1 6.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.8 5.8 5.7 63.1 55.3 40.0 3.0 5.4 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.8 8.4 5.4 45.9 45.0 32.4 4.8 9.5 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 1.3 5.7 5.8 63.2 55.4 40.3 1.8 3.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 3.0 4.4 5.6 47.3 43.7 31.6 4.0 6.3 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.8 7.3 3.4 32.5 44.4 30.5 1.1 9.2 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.8 4.5 5.3 58.0 50.8 37.8 2.6 4.4 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.3 4.2 5.6 59.1 54.1 39.5 0.8 3.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 4.6 12.4 5.2 42.5 44.6 32.4 6.8 14.3 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.6 6.6 4.3 40.0 47.7 31.2 1.4 7.5 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 1.1 8.4 5.3 70.4 56.9 29.1 0.8 6.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.8 4.9 5.0 47.3 48.7 33.6 2.0 5.1 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.3 3.6 43.4 53.1 36.6 1.2 4.9 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 3.9 9.4 6.0 45.8 41.7 30.4 4.8 11.8 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.2 5.1 56.2 52.1 39.0 1.6 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------