***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.9 3.7 27.1 39.4 31.6 2.9 4.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 4.7 5.3 42.2 47.1 40.2 1.8 5.9 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 1.6 4.1 3.3 23.9 38.5 29.7 3.1 5.7 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 2.0 4.9 2.5 21.0 37.1 25.5 3.4 8.4 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 1.5 3.1 2.1 18.8 35.2 23.1 2.1 6.8 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 0.5 0.1 1.3 10.9 25.4 15.8 0.4 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.0 3.0 5.2 39.8 44.8 39.2 1.3 9.4 18.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 2.4 3.5 3.2 22.2 29.5 23.5 5.0 13.1 21.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 1.4 1.3 2.2 16.8 33.9 23.1 1.1 5.6 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 1.9 4.8 3.6 23.6 32.9 25.2 4.8 8.1 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 1.6 1.0 2.3 20.2 35.2 24.5 0.7 7.5 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 0.9 0.7 1.8 17.1 32.2 22.5 1.1 5.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 0.2 0.1 0.9 8.9 30.6 18.5 0.1 1.5 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 1.8 3.1 4.4 26.0 36.3 28.9 2.1 5.8 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.2 1.8 1.4 14.2 38.2 23.5 0.6 5.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 0.8 0.5 1.2 11.6 30.3 19.4 0.8 5.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.5 7.1 5.4 45.5 52.6 42.9 2.9 6.1 22.8 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 2.5 5.8 4.5 26.9 32.0 24.3 6.2 12.1 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 2.8 4.9 38.0 44.7 37.1 0.6 4.9 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.3 3.1 18.6 21.6 17.7 6.7 10.3 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 1.7 2.0 2.3 17.3 36.5 24.9 0.5 6.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.3 5.7 46.3 52.6 42.1 2.6 6.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 1.2 2.3 3.9 29.0 39.3 31.3 1.8 4.1 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 2.8 7.9 3.8 23.8 35.6 26.8 6.6 12.9 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.0 23.1 39.5 27.2 1.7 6.6 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 0.2 0.1 0.6 7.1 28.6 16.2 0.3 1.8 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.3 4.0 29.2 40.6 31.6 3.4 6.6 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 0.7 0.2 1.7 14.7 34.4 22.1 0.1 3.7 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 4.1 4.7 4.0 24.5 27.1 22.6 9.5 16.0 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.5 3.1 4.8 37.2 43.2 36.9 1.5 5.7 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------