***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 30.4 30.9 31.2 2.2 83.7 79.2 28.0 29.3 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 29.7 30.2 30.6 1.6 75.6 73.0 27.9 28.6 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 29.8 30.4 30.8 1.6 75.9 72.0 27.6 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 23.7 25.4 29.5 2.9 91.2 86.6 21.3 21.9 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 31.0 31.5 29.5 2.0 80.4 77.4 28.6 29.4 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 30.3 31.1 27.9 2.9 92.1 87.4 27.3 28.4 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.4 30.9 2.1 82.9 79.0 27.6 28.3 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 19.1 20.0 28.3 2.4 85.6 79.7 16.6 17.6 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 30.0 30.7 29.4 1.5 76.4 72.5 28.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 30.2 30.8 28.4 2.1 82.5 77.5 27.9 28.5 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 30.4 31.1 29.7 1.9 79.2 75.5 28.4 28.8 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 30.0 30.9 29.7 2.3 84.1 78.5 27.5 28.5 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 31.2 32.0 29.3 2.1 81.7 78.1 28.4 29.6 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 29.5 29.7 28.6 1.3 73.9 69.8 27.6 28.9 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 31.3 32.1 31.2 2.6 88.3 83.8 29.1 29.4 30.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 31.8 32.7 29.7 2.3 85.3 80.4 29.1 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 29.2 29.7 30.7 2.2 82.4 79.9 27.4 27.9 28.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 29.2 29.9 27.8 2.4 83.9 80.0 26.8 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 29.4 29.5 30.3 1.1 69.6 66.9 27.5 28.4 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 25.7 26.7 26.2 2.8 89.4 84.3 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 30.2 30.8 30.5 1.9 80.1 76.2 27.8 28.8 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.0 30.3 1.8 78.2 75.4 27.9 28.4 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.3 29.9 0.7 63.9 60.9 27.6 28.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.3 29.7 29.0 1.7 78.5 73.9 27.2 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 30.5 31.0 29.9 2.4 85.4 81.4 28.1 28.8 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.5 29.4 2.2 82.5 78.6 28.1 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 29.8 31.0 30.5 2.4 84.8 81.0 27.5 28.4 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 31.4 32.3 30.3 2.8 91.0 86.2 28.7 29.8 30.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 24.9 25.5 27.0 2.4 84.4 80.3 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 29.6 30.0 30.7 1.7 76.1 73.4 27.6 28.4 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------