***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 28.7 28.7 29.7 1.5 68.2 63.2 26.7 27.6 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 27.9 28.5 29.4 1.2 64.3 60.4 26.3 27.6 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.1 28.5 29.6 1.1 63.1 59.4 26.6 27.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 22.3 22.2 27.8 1.7 71.8 65.2 20.1 21.1 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.9 29.3 27.7 1.0 62.1 59.1 27.7 28.5 29.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 28.0 28.6 25.5 1.3 66.0 62.8 26.1 27.6 28.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.6 29.5 1.5 69.8 63.2 26.0 27.3 28.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.5 26.3 1.0 63.2 58.2 16.1 16.7 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.3 27.6 0.8 59.3 57.1 27.2 27.9 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.4 28.4 26.6 1.0 62.6 58.4 27.0 28.0 28.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.5 27.6 0.8 58.5 57.1 27.6 28.2 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 26.4 28.4 27.7 0.8 61.1 56.9 26.4 28.0 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.6 26.8 0.9 61.2 57.9 27.4 29.0 29.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 27.9 28.1 27.1 0.9 61.9 57.7 26.5 27.4 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 29.7 30.3 28.9 1.5 69.4 64.3 27.5 28.5 29.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 29.9 30.0 27.3 1.0 61.7 59.2 28.1 29.5 30.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 27.0 27.7 29.4 1.7 68.5 64.1 25.4 26.7 27.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.6 26.0 1.2 65.8 60.2 26.3 27.0 27.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.8 27.6 29.3 0.9 60.5 57.6 26.2 27.4 27.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 23.3 24.0 23.8 1.2 65.6 60.5 21.8 23.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 28.3 28.7 28.8 1.2 64.0 60.1 26.9 28.1 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 27.3 28.2 29.1 1.4 65.2 61.2 25.7 26.9 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 27.7 27.9 29.0 0.5 56.3 54.6 26.4 27.2 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.7 28.2 27.4 1.0 63.4 58.7 25.8 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 29.0 28.9 28.1 1.7 69.8 64.9 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.2 28.8 27.3 0.7 58.3 56.4 26.9 28.2 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 28.6 28.7 28.9 1.6 70.0 64.8 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 29.8 30.0 28.1 1.5 70.0 64.1 27.6 28.5 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.1 25.0 1.2 65.2 60.1 21.6 22.6 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.9 28.0 29.5 1.2 64.9 60.6 26.4 27.6 28.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------