***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 30.3 31.8 30.4 1.7 70.2 65.7 28.7 29.9 31.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 29.7 31.0 30.0 1.4 65.8 62.5 28.1 29.4 31.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 29.8 30.8 30.2 1.1 62.6 60.2 28.2 29.5 30.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 24.6 24.8 28.7 1.9 70.7 68.2 22.2 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 31.0 31.6 28.4 1.1 61.6 60.1 28.8 30.7 31.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 29.6 30.5 26.2 1.3 65.5 63.2 27.8 29.3 30.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 30.4 30.8 30.3 1.8 70.8 66.4 28.0 29.0 30.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 18.9 19.0 26.9 0.9 59.9 58.1 16.6 18.6 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 30.1 31.0 28.2 0.8 60.0 57.5 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 30.3 30.4 27.2 1.0 61.2 58.9 28.0 30.0 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 30.7 31.0 28.2 0.8 57.9 57.1 28.6 30.4 31.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 30.1 30.2 28.3 0.8 58.0 56.5 28.0 29.9 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 31.0 31.5 27.4 0.9 60.4 57.9 28.6 30.6 32.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 29.8 30.2 27.6 0.8 57.6 56.5 27.9 29.6 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 31.5 32.0 29.7 1.7 68.2 66.6 29.0 30.5 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 32.0 32.2 28.0 1.0 61.8 59.8 29.5 31.8 32.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 29.8 30.4 30.3 2.0 74.9 68.6 27.8 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 29.2 29.7 26.7 1.2 63.6 60.5 26.8 29.0 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 29.6 29.6 29.8 0.9 60.5 58.1 28.1 29.2 30.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 25.3 26.2 24.6 1.3 63.2 61.4 22.5 25.0 26.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 30.0 30.9 29.4 1.2 63.7 61.3 28.0 29.7 31.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 29.7 30.2 30.0 1.7 70.2 65.1 28.3 29.3 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 29.4 29.5 29.4 0.4 54.9 53.5 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 29.5 30.1 27.9 1.0 61.1 58.5 27.6 29.3 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 31.3 31.7 28.9 1.9 72.5 68.1 28.1 29.9 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 30.7 30.7 27.9 0.6 57.0 54.6 28.5 30.4 31.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 30.8 31.7 29.6 1.8 73.1 67.7 28.1 29.3 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 31.8 32.2 28.9 1.7 67.9 66.5 28.6 31.1 32.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 24.9 25.2 25.7 1.2 61.9 59.9 21.8 24.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 29.5 31.0 30.1 1.3 66.0 62.2 27.9 29.2 31.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------