***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.0 32.1 2.7 83.2 75.0 27.9 29.2 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.2 30.3 31.4 1.9 74.1 68.8 28.5 29.2 29.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 30.7 30.4 31.6 1.8 72.7 67.2 28.4 28.9 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 24.2 25.8 30.3 3.3 89.1 80.1 20.6 21.8 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 31.6 33.0 30.4 2.3 81.3 71.5 28.7 29.7 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 30.6 32.3 28.9 3.3 90.7 79.5 27.4 28.4 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 30.2 30.8 31.8 2.5 81.6 74.2 27.9 28.9 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 19.3 20.6 29.1 2.7 85.0 73.3 16.6 17.4 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.5 31.1 30.3 1.7 74.0 66.9 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 30.2 31.6 29.2 2.4 81.5 71.0 27.9 28.7 29.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 30.7 31.8 30.7 2.2 79.8 69.5 28.1 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.4 30.6 2.6 83.3 72.7 27.6 28.3 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 31.9 32.8 30.4 2.4 79.5 71.5 28.4 29.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.7 29.4 1.5 67.7 63.8 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 31.5 33.3 32.3 2.9 85.7 77.5 29.0 29.6 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 32.4 33.9 30.7 2.6 84.1 74.1 29.1 29.9 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 29.5 30.4 31.5 2.6 81.5 74.8 27.4 28.5 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 29.3 30.6 28.7 2.7 83.9 72.4 26.7 27.7 28.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.4 31.1 1.3 67.3 63.7 28.0 28.6 29.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 26.4 27.8 27.4 3.5 89.3 78.2 22.9 23.4 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 31.1 32.1 31.5 2.2 78.4 70.8 28.4 29.1 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.6 31.2 2.2 76.7 71.3 28.3 28.9 29.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.3 30.6 0.8 61.2 58.4 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 30.0 30.4 29.9 1.9 73.8 66.9 27.2 28.5 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 31.7 32.7 30.9 2.8 86.4 76.5 28.3 29.2 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 31.7 32.7 30.2 2.5 81.7 72.7 28.0 29.0 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.7 31.4 2.8 85.2 76.4 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 31.9 33.6 31.2 3.1 88.2 79.3 28.7 29.5 30.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 24.9 26.7 27.9 2.7 83.9 72.7 22.0 22.8 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.2 30.9 31.6 2.0 75.2 69.0 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------