***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 32.3 32.9 32.5 3.1 83.2 81.4 28.5 29.7 31.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 31.3 31.7 31.6 2.0 73.9 72.3 27.8 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 31.6 32.2 32.0 2.2 76.9 74.1 27.4 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 24.7 26.4 31.2 4.8 95.0 92.0 21.3 22.3 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 32.6 33.6 31.7 3.7 87.2 84.6 28.5 29.9 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 30.6 34.0 31.2 5.8 98.4 96.6 27.4 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 31.4 31.9 32.1 2.7 80.2 78.5 27.7 29.0 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 20.0 21.3 30.7 4.8 94.0 90.8 17.4 18.1 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 31.9 32.4 31.6 2.8 79.6 78.5 28.4 29.4 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 31.0 32.6 30.6 4.0 88.8 86.1 28.3 28.7 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 31.9 32.9 32.5 3.9 87.9 84.7 28.2 29.0 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 30.5 32.6 32.3 4.9 93.8 90.6 27.6 28.9 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 31.8 34.0 32.8 4.5 93.3 89.7 28.5 30.3 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 31.2 31.3 30.3 2.2 76.2 74.3 27.5 29.0 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 32.3 34.0 34.1 4.3 92.5 89.3 29.4 30.3 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 32.7 34.7 32.8 4.7 93.4 90.6 29.4 30.4 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 30.9 31.1 31.7 2.6 77.7 76.8 27.2 29.0 29.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 30.1 31.4 29.9 4.4 89.5 87.2 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.5 31.1 1.3 69.8 67.4 27.2 28.6 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 26.5 28.7 28.9 5.3 96.2 93.3 23.4 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 32.2 32.8 32.5 3.1 81.2 80.3 27.8 29.4 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 31.2 31.6 31.1 2.0 75.7 73.3 27.5 29.3 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 30.4 30.0 30.8 0.9 67.0 63.6 27.6 28.6 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 31.1 31.6 31.1 3.0 80.8 78.7 27.6 28.6 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 32.3 33.2 31.7 3.4 84.7 82.7 28.0 29.9 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 31.5 34.3 32.1 5.0 96.0 93.0 28.2 29.9 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 32.0 32.8 31.9 3.2 83.9 82.0 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 32.1 33.9 32.8 4.9 95.5 92.9 28.9 30.4 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 25.9 27.1 29.3 4.5 91.0 88.3 22.5 23.4 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 31.5 32.1 31.8 2.2 76.1 74.0 27.7 29.1 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------