***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 16.2 16.6 19.7 1.5 83.5 79.6 15.3 15.6 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.4 18.9 1.0 75.8 72.1 15.1 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.5 18.9 19.6 1.1 78.0 74.8 17.1 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 14.5 15.9 17.5 1.8 92.5 86.7 12.4 13.2 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 14.6 15.0 17.5 1.4 83.2 79.6 13.5 14.1 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 13.5 14.2 15.6 1.8 93.5 89.8 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 16.3 16.6 19.3 1.3 80.4 77.1 15.2 15.7 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 9.5 10.0 15.3 1.4 86.1 81.9 8.1 8.8 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.9 17.1 0.9 76.1 73.2 14.8 15.2 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 15.8 16.1 15.8 1.2 82.3 79.0 14.7 15.1 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 15.4 15.6 17.0 1.2 81.0 78.0 14.2 14.5 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.7 13.9 16.4 1.5 85.8 82.6 12.3 13.0 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 14.5 15.4 15.7 1.4 87.4 83.6 13.5 14.0 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 16.4 16.7 16.9 0.9 78.3 74.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 17.0 17.7 19.2 1.7 90.7 86.3 15.6 16.3 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 16.4 17.2 16.7 1.6 89.4 85.1 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 16.6 16.9 18.8 1.1 79.9 75.1 15.6 15.9 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 14.3 14.6 15.1 1.5 88.5 84.1 12.7 13.6 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 15.9 16.0 18.8 0.8 71.0 67.8 15.1 15.5 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 10.0 10.7 13.4 1.7 93.9 88.8 9.1 9.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 15.4 15.7 18.6 1.2 80.4 77.5 14.7 14.8 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.6 18.8 1.0 77.1 72.9 14.6 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 14.9 15.2 18.7 0.6 67.9 63.9 14.6 14.8 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 16.0 16.4 17.0 1.2 82.8 78.1 15.2 15.4 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 16.0 16.3 18.6 1.5 85.2 81.0 14.8 15.1 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 14.8 15.5 15.5 1.6 91.4 86.8 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 16.5 16.9 19.1 1.6 85.3 81.2 14.9 15.7 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 14.4 15.9 18.0 1.8 93.2 87.9 13.6 13.8 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 13.9 14.3 14.5 1.4 87.4 82.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 16.4 16.6 19.3 1.1 76.6 73.5 15.3 15.7 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------