***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.08.2021.-29.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.9 18.4 1.3 70.9 66.7 13.9 14.3 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.8 15.9 18.0 1.1 69.9 64.0 13.3 14.8 15.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.9 18.4 1.0 67.6 64.2 15.8 16.8 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.2 16.1 1.4 76.3 69.9 11.2 12.2 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.2 14.4 15.8 1.1 70.5 65.6 12.1 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.2 14.1 1.1 74.2 68.6 11.7 12.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 15.8 15.9 18.3 1.2 72.5 65.9 13.9 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 8.7 8.9 13.8 0.9 68.4 64.8 7.0 8.0 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.6 15.7 1.0 70.6 64.9 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 15.1 15.0 14.4 1.0 70.6 65.8 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.5 15.4 0.9 68.3 64.4 12.8 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 13.0 13.3 14.6 0.9 68.3 64.6 11.2 12.1 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.1 13.8 1.1 71.4 66.6 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 16.0 16.1 15.7 0.9 69.4 64.4 14.0 14.9 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.4 17.4 1.3 73.5 68.8 14.4 15.5 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.7 14.8 1.2 72.0 67.4 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.2 17.8 1.2 71.1 64.9 14.0 15.2 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.9 13.6 1.2 75.6 69.2 11.6 12.1 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.8 17.9 0.9 66.8 62.3 13.5 14.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 9.4 9.6 11.5 1.2 75.8 68.9 7.6 8.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 15.0 15.1 17.3 1.1 69.8 65.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 14.9 15.1 17.7 1.2 70.6 64.8 13.1 14.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 17.7 0.7 64.1 60.5 12.9 14.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 15.5 15.5 15.6 1.1 71.5 66.7 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.4 17.1 1.4 73.5 68.3 13.3 14.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 14.1 14.1 13.7 1.0 68.2 64.8 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.2 16.7 17.8 1.4 74.2 68.4 13.2 14.7 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.4 16.3 1.4 75.3 69.4 12.3 13.1 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 13.0 13.3 13.1 1.2 74.3 68.4 11.2 12.2 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.1 16.3 18.3 1.1 70.3 64.6 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------