***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.08.2021.-22.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 15.8 16.4 18.8 0.9 67.1 62.0 14.9 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.8 16.3 18.3 0.7 67.3 59.3 14.3 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.1 19.0 18.8 0.7 66.1 59.6 17.0 17.8 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 15.1 15.4 16.6 1.2 72.6 66.7 12.1 13.7 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.0 14.5 16.2 0.7 62.0 59.5 13.1 13.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 13.7 14.0 14.7 0.9 69.0 65.4 12.4 13.0 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 15.7 16.7 18.7 1.1 70.3 63.9 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 8.7 9.8 14.3 0.7 63.8 60.3 7.7 8.3 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.3 15.5 16.0 0.5 60.2 57.0 14.1 15.1 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.6 14.8 0.7 62.6 59.4 14.5 15.3 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.9 15.9 0.7 61.9 59.4 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.4 15.2 0.7 63.8 60.5 11.8 13.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.7 14.4 14.2 0.7 63.4 61.1 13.2 13.3 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.0 15.9 0.5 61.0 57.2 14.8 15.5 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 17.1 17.4 18.1 1.2 73.3 68.0 15.3 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.6 15.2 0.8 65.0 62.1 14.5 15.7 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.7 18.3 1.0 70.6 63.3 15.4 15.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 14.2 13.9 0.8 67.5 62.3 12.3 12.9 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.9 18.2 0.5 63.5 56.2 14.7 15.1 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.9 11.9 0.9 68.2 63.9 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 14.9 15.3 17.6 0.7 63.2 59.3 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 14.9 15.8 18.2 0.9 69.3 60.9 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.2 18.0 0.3 59.4 54.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.7 15.9 0.7 64.6 59.9 14.3 15.2 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.4 16.2 17.4 1.0 66.7 62.9 14.5 15.1 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.8 14.1 0.6 61.3 59.3 13.6 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.3 16.7 18.1 1.0 67.8 63.1 14.6 15.9 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.9 16.9 1.2 72.9 67.2 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.5 14.2 13.5 0.9 68.5 62.9 11.9 13.2 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.7 18.6 0.8 67.1 60.3 15.0 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------