***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 16.7 17.0 20.2 1.5 81.3 70.6 15.3 16.3 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 16.3 16.5 19.3 1.0 72.5 63.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 18.8 19.0 20.0 1.1 73.4 65.9 17.2 18.2 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 14.9 15.8 18.2 2.0 85.6 77.3 12.2 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.5 16.1 18.1 1.4 78.5 70.7 13.3 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 14.2 15.1 16.4 2.1 90.0 82.2 12.6 13.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.9 19.8 1.3 77.7 68.2 15.2 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.8 10.6 15.9 1.6 82.9 74.5 8.5 8.9 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.6 16.3 17.7 0.9 68.6 65.2 14.9 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.6 16.4 1.3 77.2 70.6 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 15.9 16.4 17.9 1.4 79.4 72.3 14.3 14.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 14.1 14.5 17.2 1.7 82.7 75.7 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.8 16.6 1.5 82.9 75.3 13.4 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.4 16.8 17.3 0.8 70.8 63.4 15.7 16.3 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 17.4 18.1 20.2 1.9 85.2 79.5 15.7 16.1 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.6 17.5 1.7 84.7 76.7 14.6 15.9 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.0 19.2 1.1 74.4 66.3 15.6 16.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 14.7 15.4 15.7 1.5 79.9 72.1 12.8 13.6 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.5 19.2 0.7 67.1 59.9 15.3 16.0 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 10.3 10.9 14.2 1.9 85.5 77.2 9.2 9.9 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.6 19.2 1.2 76.3 68.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.8 16.0 19.2 1.0 72.3 64.9 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.6 19.0 0.4 60.1 56.4 14.6 15.5 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.8 17.5 1.1 75.0 67.4 15.4 15.8 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 16.6 17.1 19.2 1.6 82.3 71.4 14.5 15.7 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.3 15.7 16.2 1.7 85.6 76.3 14.0 14.8 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 16.7 17.4 19.6 1.6 81.8 71.1 14.8 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 15.4 16.2 18.8 2.0 86.3 79.6 13.0 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.4 15.1 1.4 80.5 72.4 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.0 19.8 1.1 74.3 65.2 15.2 16.3 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------